Sweden’s rocky road from neutrality toward NATO membership

A major hurdle was overcome on Monday when Turkey’s president agreed to send NATO accession documents to the Turkish parliament for approval, something he had refused to do for more than a year.

This means that Sweden is now close to becoming the 32nd member of NATO, although it has not yet crossed the finish line. Here’s what to know for Sweden’s turbulent path to joining the coalition.

Goodbye neutrality

For a country that hadn’t been to war in two centuries, the decision to join NATO was a monumental one. Sweden refused to take sides during both world wars and throughout the Cold War, and embraced neutrality at the core of its security policy and even its national identity.

Although it adjusted its status to “non-aligned” after joining the European Union in 1995 and gradually increased its cooperation with NATO, until last year Stockholm ruled out applying for membership, with public opinion vehemently rejecting it.

In late November 2021 — three months before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine — then-Defense Minister Peter Hultqvist promised that Sweden would never join NATO while the centre-left Social Democrats were in power.

Then the war began. As Russian tanks rolled across the Ukrainian border and missiles struck Kiev and other cities, public opinion in both Finland and Sweden shifted. Even Hultqvist and the Social Democrats made a U-turn, and in May last year Sweden and Finland jointly applied for NATO membership.

Turki says not so fast

Most observers expected Sweden and Finland’s applications to be expedited because they already met the criteria for membership and the Ukraine war added urgency. 28 NATO countries quickly ratified accession protocols.

But Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had a different idea. He said Turkey could not welcome the northern countries as NATO allies unless it cracked down on groups it sees as security threats, including the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has led a decades-old insurgency in Turkey.

Sweden has taken in more than a million refugees in recent decades, including tens of thousands of Kurds from Turkey, Iran and Iraq. Some of them sympathize with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has been designated a terrorist group by the European Union.

In an effort to address Erdogan’s concerns, Finland and Sweden signed an agreement with Turkey at last year’s NATO summit in Madrid. They agreed to resume arms exports to Turkey that were suspended after the 2019 Turkish incursion into Kurdish areas in northern Syria, tighten anti-terrorism laws and intensify efforts to prevent PKK activities in their countries.

When the Swedes elected a center-right government last September, it was expected that negotiations with Turkey would become a little easier because the previous Social Democratic government was saddled with its support for Kurdish militants in Syria with links to the PKK.

But things got complicated in January when pro-Kurdish activists briefly hung an effigy of Erdogan from a street lamp outside Stockholm’s city hall. Soon after, an anti-Islam activist from Denmark burned the Quran outside the Turkish Embassy in Stockholm.

If the goal was to derail Sweden’s bid for NATO by enraging Turkey, the protests had the desired effect: Ankara froze NATO talks with Sweden, while allowing Finland to join in April. Conservative Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s government has spent months trying to repair the damage.

And just as relations appeared to be improving, a refugee from Iraq staged another protest against the burning of the Qur’an last month outside a mosque in Stockholm, dampening hopes that Turkey would block Sweden’s accession before the NATO summit in Vilnius.

Who is behind the protests?

Anti-Erdogan protests brought together pro-Kurdish and far-left protesters in Sweden. Some participants waved PKK flags.

Meanwhile, the Koran is burned by a far-right activist from Denmark and a Christian refugee from Iraq. They might not have gotten much attention were it not for the NATO spotlight, but with Ankara keeping a close eye on developments in Sweden, the protests made headlines in Turkey and other Muslim countries, with leaders criticizing Sweden for allowing it.

This sparked a debate in Sweden about whether burning the Qur’an could be considered incitement to hatred, which is illegal, or a legal expression of an opinion about a world religion.

Swedish officials are trying to reassure Turkey that Sweden is not a country hostile to Muslims, stressing that the government does not condone the burning of the Qur’an but cannot prevent them, under the pretext of freedom of expression.

The government’s harsh condemnations of the protests have caused a backlash domestically, with critics accusing Kristerson of bending over backwards to please Turkey.

The protests also raised suspicions of Russian interference. Once Sweden launched its membership application, the country’s security service warned that Moscow could increase influence activities during the application process. However, no evidence has emerged of Russian links to the protesters.

What does Türkiye want?

Turkey’s obstruction of Sweden’s bid for NATO has angered the United States and other allies. Some analysts suggested that Turkey was using its influence to push for F-16 upgrades from the United States.

While both Turkish and American officials said the Swedish accession process and the F-16 upgrades were unrelated, President Joe Biden implicitly linked the two issues in a phone call with Erdogan in May.

I spoke to Erdogan and he still wants to work on something on the F-16s. I told him we wanted a deal with Sweden. Let’s get this done, Biden said.

Before leaving for the NATO summit in Vilnius on Monday, Erdogan came up with another demand. He said European countries should reopen long-frozen talks to allow Turkey to join the EU. He said, “When you pave the way for Turkey, we will pave the way for Sweden as we did with Finland.”

After Erdoğan met separately with Kristerson and EU Council President Charles Michel in Vilnius, the NATO Secretary General announced a breakthrough: Erdoğan was ready to send a protocol of Sweden’s accession to the Turkish parliament in exchange for deeper cooperation on security issues and Sweden’s support for reviving Turkey’s quest for it. European Union membership.

While celebrating the agreement as a “very big step on the road” to NATO membership, Christerson stopped short of calling NATO membership a done deal, noting that it was unclear when the Turkish Parliament would make its decision.

What about Hungary?

Unlike Turkey, Hungary has not provided a reason for not ratifying Sweden’s membership in NATO. Hungary established close economic and diplomatic relations with Russia before the war.

From its inception, Prime Minister Viktor Orban refused to support Ukraine with arms and argued against EU sanctions on Moscow.

During his visit to Vienna last week, Orban denied Hungary’s postponement of Sweden’s membership.

“We support Sweden’s accession, but the Hungarian Parliament has not yet ratified the decision,” he said. We are in constant contact with the Secretary General of NATO and the Turks. So if we have something to do, we’ll move on.”

Many analysts believe that Orban is waiting for Erdogan’s next move and that Hungary will agree to Sweden joining if it appears Turkey will do the same. This is what happened with the accession of Finland.