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Although heat wave conditions are likely to prevail in parts of the northern and eastern provinces of Telangana on Tuesday, the good news is that the southwest monsoon has advanced further covering parts of Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. Rain clouds are expected to move further into Telangana and, according to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), “conditions are favorable for further advance of the southwest monsoon over some other parts of peninsular India in the next two to three days.”
IMD’s Hyderabad Center predicted light to moderate rain or thunderstorms likely over isolated parts of the state. It issued a yellow warning for the next five days as thunderstorms with lightning are expected in isolated locations. “This is not due to the monsoon. It is convective activity in the evening due to higher daytime temperatures as the northwest low continues to dominate the state. This is nothing unusual. We expect the wind flow pattern to change to the west on Tuesday causing rain Good rains on Wednesday and Thursday,” A Sravani, C scientist at IMD-Hyderabad, told Indianexpress.com.
On Monday, TSDPS (Telangana State Development Planning Society with 1044 automated meteorological stations across the state) recorded the highest maximum temperature of 44.2°C at Monagala in Suryapet district. Several locations in districts like Bhadradri Kothagudem, Peddapalli, Kumuram Bheem Asifabad, Mancherial, Jayashankar Bhupalpally, Mulugu, Nalgonda, Khammam, Karimnagar, Mahbubabad and Nirmal have recorded temperature levels above 40°C.
The prevailing heatwave scenario is caused by the delay in the onset of monsoons and the presence of a heat sink in the northern coast of Andhra Pradesh. The southwest monsoon, which is 8 days late in reaching the coast of Kerala, usually takes another 10 days to reach Telangana. As parts of Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh have already started receiving rains, the southwest monsoon clouds are expected to reach Telangana by June 22 and cover the entire state by June 26-27.
Former Deputy Director General of IMD, YV Rama Rao, who works with TSDPS, told indianexpress.com that Telangana will receive rainfall for four to five days starting from June 24, but it will not be heavy rain. Despite the late start, Telangana can expect normal rains this year. Last year, Telangana recorded more than 50 percent increase in precipitation during the southwest monsoon season.
Most models show normal precipitation for July and August, which are the wettest months. We can expect good rain, which may be as low as 10 percent. Unless there are low or low pressure systems in the Bay of Bengal, there will be no heavy rainfall events as in previous years. Factors such as El Nino are a problem but may only have an effect in September and October. “The good thing is that the Indian Ocean dipole is showing some positive signs,” said Rama Rao. Precipitation may be below normal in June, but this deficiency will be covered by good rains in July and August to bring the total monsoon rainfall figures to normal.
Normal rainfall in Telangana during the southwest monsoon is 738.6 mm. With the delay in the onset of the monsoon, the precipitation for the month of June (as of 20th June) is already deficient with a deviation of 82 per cent. This year, the International Institute for Management Development predicted that the southwest monsoon will be normal over the northern and central provinces and less than normal over the southern provinces such as Mahabubnagar, Narayanpet, Gugulampa Gadwal, Nagarkornol and Anaparthi districts.
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