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Climate change has at least doubled the chances of a heat wave in Uttar Pradesh that recently swept the state, causing several hospitalizations, according to an analysis done using a measure called the Climate Shift Index (CSI).
Developed by Climate Central, an independent US-based group of scientists and communicators, CSI is a tool that quantifies the extent to which climate change contributes to daily temperatures.
68 patients died in the district hospital in Palia district of Uttar Pradesh in five days till Monday amidst a severe heatwave in the district. But officials said only two people died from heatstroke. According to media reports, the neighboring district of Al-Dioriyeh also witnessed deaths amid the sweltering heat.
Climate Central researchers conducted the analysis using CSI, which measures how often and by how much temperatures have shifted from the historical average. A higher index indicates a more dramatic change compared to the past.
CSI levels above one indicate climate change. Levels between two and five mean that climate change has caused these temperatures to increase two to five times.
The analysis shows that certain parts of Uttar Pradesh have reached CSI levels of three, indicating temperatures that have become at least three times more likely due to climate change.
A new analysis shows that a three-day extreme heat event over Uttar Pradesh from June 14-16 was at least twice as likely to be triggered by human-caused climate change, Climate Central researchers said.
According to them, the extreme temperatures combined with the high humidity contributed to the severity of the event.
“Time and time again we see that climate change is dramatically increasing the frequency and intensity of heat waves, one of the most dangerous weather events out there. Our latest World Weather Referral Study (WWA) shows that this was recognized in India, but the implementation of heat action plans slow.
“Action on adaptation should be an absolute priority everywhere,” said Friedrich Otto, co-chair of the WWA, a panel of international experts that studies the role of climate change in extreme weather events.
In April, heat exposure and prolonged exposure to the sun claimed the lives of 13 people on an event in Navi Mumbai in Kharghar.
Medical experts say heatstroke occurs when the body’s temperature regulation system fails and you overheat.
Common symptoms include a very high body temperature, rapid breathing, rapid heartbeat, altered mental status, and sometimes dry skin or a lack of sweating. However, these symptoms can also occur in other medical emergencies, making it difficult to immediately identify heatstroke as the cause of death.
Heatwave conditions prevailed for about 10 days in eastern Uttar Pradesh, eastern Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and Chhattisgarh, and for 12 days in Odisha, Jharkhand, Telangana and northern Andhra Pradesh in the absence of any rain-producing weather system, according to the Indian Meteorological Department.
A heat wave is declared if the maximum temperature of a station reaches at least 40°C in the plains, at least 37°C in the coastal areas and at least 30°C in the mountainous areas, and the deviation from normal is at least 4.5°C. .
Heat action plans are the primary policy response to economically harmful and life-threatening heat waves. This describes several activities and responses to disasters and post-heat wave response measures to reduce the impact of heat waves.
Mariam Zakaria, a researcher at Imperial College London and WWA, said, “The combination of extreme heat and humidity is particularly dangerous for humans, especially in urban contexts where the heat island effect can lead to increased temperatures. Unless carbon emissions are rapidly reduced, they will become These life-threatening events are more frequent and intense.” A report released in May by the International Institute for Development stated that most parts of India will see an increase in the duration of heatwaves by 12-18 days by 2060.
Heat waves have claimed more than 17,000 lives in 50 years in India, according to a paper written by M. Rajivan, former secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, along with scientists Kamaljeet Ray, SS Ray, RK Giri, and I.P. Demre.
The paper published in 2021 stated that India reported 706 heat wave incidents from 1971 to 2019.
The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlighted that the high death rate due to heat waves is a major climate risk for South Asian countries.
The report stated that a moderate increase in average temperatures or a small increase in the duration of heatwaves could lead to a significant increase in the death rate in India unless remedial and response measures are taken.
However, heat waves are not officially recognized as a natural disaster on a national level in India. In addition to the huge impact on human health, severe periods of high temperatures can significantly reduce crop yields and cause reproductive failure in many crops, as evidenced by the research.
According to a report by the McKinsey Global Institute, about 75 percent of workers in India suffer from heat-related stress. The report warns that if this trend continues, the country could lose between 2.5 percent to 4.5 percent of its gross domestic product annually by 2030.
India is experiencing record temperatures, with 2023 the hottest February since record-keeping began in 1901. March 2022 was the warmest on record and the third driest in 121 years. The year also marked the third warmest April in the country since 1901.
(This story was not edited by the News18 staff and was published from a syndicated news agency feed – PTI)
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