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Analysts said the rebellion of Wagner’s mercenary group exposed glaring weaknesses in the position of Russian President Vladimir Putin, raising questions about his ability to confront growing threats to his political survival.
Putin has realized the immediate danger that erupted over the weekend, with Wagner’s boss Yevgeny Prigozhin Cancel the advance of his forces and accept a deal that sends him into exile in Belarus.
Observers warn that it is still too early to say the full results of the revolution put it in(70), who ruled Russia for nearly two and a half decades after Boris Yeltsin, its first president after the collapse of the Soviet Union, handed over power on New Year’s Eve 1999.
But as Moscow presses its invasion of Ukraine, the rebellion has exposed the illusion of Putin’s image as an all-powerful strongman, revealing an isolated figure who may be fighting for control of rival factions.
“Putin and the country have dealt a severe blow that will have major repercussions for the system,” said Tatyana Stanovaya, founder of R Politik Consultancy.
U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, whose administration knew of Prigozhin’s intentions days before he launched the insurrection, said, according to The New York Times, that the insurrection “raises deep questions. It shows real cracks.”
“We can’t speculate or know exactly where that will go,” he told US television on Sunday. “We know Putin has a lot to respond to in the coming weeks and months.”
The bitter infighting unleashed by the revolution, including a personal feud between Prigozhin and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, has shown that Putin no longer sits comfortably at the apex of power.
Meanwhile, his armed forces, which the Kremlin ordered in the February 2022 invasion to seize the Ukrainian capital Kiev, could not even prevent Wagner from taking control of the Russian army’s southern command center in Rostov-on-Don.
In a bizarre twist, the negotiations that saw Prigozhin abandon his rebellion were brokered by Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko who usually appears as a junior partner to Putin rather than his savior.
And while the revolution ended in a matter of hours, the images of Prigozhin and his fighters receiving a hero’s farewell in Rostov-on-Don would have made the Kremlin uncomfortable to watch.
The questions posed to Putin are particularly acute with the Russian presidential election in March 2024 less than a year away. Controversial constitutional changes mean he can run for two more terms, until 2036.
He has not yet officially confirmed his intentions and there is no sign of a successor entering the framework, even if there is growing interest in the governor of the Tula region, Alexei Dyumin, his former top bodyguard, as a possible replacement for Shoigu and a candidate for future promotion.
“This is not the end of the story, but the beginning. Military revolutions, even unsuccessful ones, are often in history a harbinger, the beginning of a process,” said Kirill Rogov, director of the Re: Russia consulting firm.
In a speech whose tone surprised many observers, Putin on Saturday compared the revolution to the “stab in the back” of 1917 when the first events of the Russian Revolution toppled the tsar and pulled Russia out of World War One.
“None of this means that the system will collapse anytime soon,” said Mark Galeotti, director of research consultancy Mayak Intelligence.
But he added: “The rebellion undermines the ability, strength and credibility of Putin’s state and brings the day that this regime will fall.”
The invasion of Ukraine has also intensified scrutiny in Russian-language media based outside the country on his health, lifestyle and decision-making, painting a picture of a paranoid leader who has become increasingly isolated since the Covid pandemic, spending little time in the Kremlin.
Several outlets, basing their reporting on open-source material, have claimed that Putin spends most of his time at a large complex on Lake Ladoga outside St. Petersburg, where he is said to travel on an armored train rather than a plane to ensure maximum security.
His famously masculine appearance which saw him depicted topless while hunting or on horseback in a display of virility now appears to be a thing of the past.
The Kremlin has insisted Putin was in Moscow at the time the weekend events unfolded, and has always denied allegations about his health.
“My conclusion is that Prigozhin lost in the end. Wagner will lose, too,” said Michael Kaufman, director of Russian studies at the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA).
But Putin lost as well, and the regime was wounded. What are the long-term ramifications we haven’t seen yet.”
Putin has realized the immediate danger that erupted over the weekend, with Wagner’s boss Yevgeny Prigozhin Cancel the advance of his forces and accept a deal that sends him into exile in Belarus.
Observers warn that it is still too early to say the full results of the revolution put it in(70), who ruled Russia for nearly two and a half decades after Boris Yeltsin, its first president after the collapse of the Soviet Union, handed over power on New Year’s Eve 1999.
But as Moscow presses its invasion of Ukraine, the rebellion has exposed the illusion of Putin’s image as an all-powerful strongman, revealing an isolated figure who may be fighting for control of rival factions.
“Putin and the country have dealt a severe blow that will have major repercussions for the system,” said Tatyana Stanovaya, founder of R Politik Consultancy.
U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, whose administration knew of Prigozhin’s intentions days before he launched the insurrection, said, according to The New York Times, that the insurrection “raises deep questions. It shows real cracks.”
“We can’t speculate or know exactly where that will go,” he told US television on Sunday. “We know Putin has a lot to respond to in the coming weeks and months.”
The bitter infighting unleashed by the revolution, including a personal feud between Prigozhin and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, has shown that Putin no longer sits comfortably at the apex of power.
Meanwhile, his armed forces, which the Kremlin ordered in the February 2022 invasion to seize the Ukrainian capital Kiev, could not even prevent Wagner from taking control of the Russian army’s southern command center in Rostov-on-Don.
In a bizarre twist, the negotiations that saw Prigozhin abandon his rebellion were brokered by Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko who usually appears as a junior partner to Putin rather than his savior.
And while the revolution ended in a matter of hours, the images of Prigozhin and his fighters receiving a hero’s farewell in Rostov-on-Don would have made the Kremlin uncomfortable to watch.
The questions posed to Putin are particularly acute with the Russian presidential election in March 2024 less than a year away. Controversial constitutional changes mean he can run for two more terms, until 2036.
He has not yet officially confirmed his intentions and there is no sign of a successor entering the framework, even if there is growing interest in the governor of the Tula region, Alexei Dyumin, his former top bodyguard, as a possible replacement for Shoigu and a candidate for future promotion.
“This is not the end of the story, but the beginning. Military revolutions, even unsuccessful ones, are often in history a harbinger, the beginning of a process,” said Kirill Rogov, director of the Re: Russia consulting firm.
In a speech whose tone surprised many observers, Putin on Saturday compared the revolution to the “stab in the back” of 1917 when the first events of the Russian Revolution toppled the tsar and pulled Russia out of World War One.
“None of this means that the system will collapse anytime soon,” said Mark Galeotti, director of research consultancy Mayak Intelligence.
But he added: “The rebellion undermines the ability, strength and credibility of Putin’s state and brings the day that this regime will fall.”
The invasion of Ukraine has also intensified scrutiny in Russian-language media based outside the country on his health, lifestyle and decision-making, painting a picture of a paranoid leader who has become increasingly isolated since the Covid pandemic, spending little time in the Kremlin.
Several outlets, basing their reporting on open-source material, have claimed that Putin spends most of his time at a large complex on Lake Ladoga outside St. Petersburg, where he is said to travel on an armored train rather than a plane to ensure maximum security.
His famously masculine appearance which saw him depicted topless while hunting or on horseback in a display of virility now appears to be a thing of the past.
The Kremlin has insisted Putin was in Moscow at the time the weekend events unfolded, and has always denied allegations about his health.
“My conclusion is that Prigozhin lost in the end. Wagner will lose, too,” said Michael Kaufman, director of Russian studies at the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA).
But Putin lost as well, and the regime was wounded. What are the long-term ramifications we haven’t seen yet.”
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