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For the past few months, Maharashtra has been witnessing a bitter anti-Muslim mobilization, but the opposition has not responded adequately. Now, the “secular” Bugbals and Ajit Powers collaborated with the Bharatiya Janata Party Against the backdrop of alleged random executions in Nashik. This says a lot about the senselessness of the reconfiguration underway in Maharashtra.
Maharashtra has been in a violent throes since 2019: First, the Shiv Sena chose to sever its three-decade-old ties with the Bharatiya Janata Party. This in itself was a major reconfiguration that led to the removal of the Bharatiya Janata Party and the formation of a new coalition. Last year, the Maha Vikas Agadi (MVA) was bogged down by the ‘split’ in the Shiv Sena and the formation of a government in which the BJP agreed to play second fiddle. Now, the other major Maharashtra state party, NCP, “split” A faction of lawmakers joined the state government. This development has the potential to further complicate the country’s political situation – and to divert attention from critical social and economic issues.
There is no need to speculate why the faction led by Ajit Pawar decided to side with the BJP. He has repeatedly expressed his discontent with his departure from power. This is not an Ajit Pawar thing. Since the party’s founding in 1999, the NCP has been a vehicle for exercising formal government power for its senior leaders. Most of them have spent their early years close to centers of power and do not have the stamina to serve as members of an opposition party – they are clueless about opposition mobilization. Since 2014, most of them have been listless as fish out of water. While this time a large group joined the BJP en masse, a steady stream of leaders joined the party once they saw it emerge as a dominant pole in national politics.
The question then is not why Ajit Pawar and many others chose to join the Bharatiya Janata Party, But what are the implications of mass immigration for state policy? What does this mean for the BJP, who seem to be happier about this episode? Some of the party’s supporters will, of course, say they have avenged the humiliation of 2019 – a tame point, given that the party has lost the premiership. Clever strategists would claim that this would shrink the size of the Shinde group. But that’s a less important aspect of this episode because Shine and his minions don’t have any leverage on their own.
The BJP may argue, with good reason, that with crutches the party may be able to win a reasonable number of seats next year, especially since groups led by Shinde and Pawar seem less interested in Lok Sabha seats. More importantly, the BJP may have achieved a larger goal – the elimination of yet another state-level force. In every state, the BJP aims to demolish the regional players to pave the way for its next electoral offensive. Knowing that the Congress has strict limitations in fighting the BJP in direct competitions, the latter wants to destroy the state parties and then encourage the proliferation of smaller players who can be more easily managed, and get rid of them when they are no longer needed.
In this way, the BJP emerges as the winner from the new reconfiguration of Maharashtra. However, there is a catch with this: sympathy for the parties that have lost can hurt the BJP. Also, in the Maharashtra assembly elections, the BJP will have to put off its ambition of ‘Chat Pratishat Bhagpa’ (coming to power on its own). The reward for the Lok Sabha will depend on sharing power with the two breakaway groups – unless the BJP succeeds in eliminating and disposing of them. It is very likely that this is the game plan, to which the Shinde faction and the Ajit Pawar faction seem to have no answer.
Since the NCP drama unfolded on Sunday, some sympathizers in Congress have suggested this is an excellent opportunity for the party to expand into the state. In theory, this is a valid assessment. With both the Shiv Sena and the NCP bruised, the Congress must emerge as the main opposition. In terms of agenda setting and seat sharing for Lok Sabha, the Congress could have the upper hand. However, these predictions hit the wall for three reasons.
First, the state congress does not have effective leadership that can bring the party closer to the people. Congress would require an overhaul of the state’s party to have any effect. Secondly, she will have to drop her reservations about working with both Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar. The various groups in the state congress are not willing to do this on their own. Some are wary of the Shiv Sena’s stance on Hindutva (although the state Congress has done little to protect Muslims) and there are those who do not trust Sharad Pawar on historical grounds. Also in 2019, the state’s Congress leadership, presumably Rahul Gandhi himself, was not enthusiastic about working with Shiv Sena. Thirdly, Sharad Pawar looks set to build his party anew and with several heavyweights exiting, the promise of a rapid rise will make his party an attractive destination for new entrants in politics – the Congress, with its entrenched homegrown leadership, cannot be guaranteed.
The final question posed by the latest reconfiguration is the future of the injured limb. With the blow taken by Pawar Sr., the sympathy that Uddhav Thackeray had enjoyed would likely vanish. With the constant acrobatics to be done on the matter of Hindutva, Thackeray Shiv Sena will be in for a delicate position. With Pawar’s National Congress Party and Thackeray’s faction both wanting to solidify their social credentials, the two would be in competition rather than complementary.
For Sharad Pawar, this may be the most difficult moment in his political career. Having chosen to prioritize national politics, he was forced, once again, to adapt to the role of a regional player. Ironically, his focus on national politics and Ajit Pawar’s single-minded focus on state-level politics led to the current split. Politics at the state level became extremely important to Sharad Pawar’s political survival. This would harm his standing and role in national politics.
In short, political devastation has hit Maharashtra where there are no clear beneficiaries. In order for the political benefits and competition to become comprehensible to the voter, some more exciting plots may be required. The course of state policy may depend on which party—and the leader—can craft such plots.
Meanwhile, as comedy turns into tragedy, politics and governance will decline in the country. The newcomers to Modi’s fold will hoarsely shout about the merits of the BJP system. Fittingly, blatant anti-minority mobilization is gaining ground in Maharashtra.
The Pune-based writer teaches political science and is the editor-in-chief of Studies in Indian Politics
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