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Essentially, this indicates that the southwest monsoon is now likely to appear on the coast of Kerala under the shadow of El Niño – a phenomenon that has cast a negative influence on it. (image file)
A recent global update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) indicates that there is now over a 60% chance of an El Niño event during May-July 2023 and rising to 80% during July-September – the period that coincides with the southwest monsoon over the Indian coast.
With only a month left until the start of the southwest monsoon on the Indian coast, a new global update indicates a strong possibility of El Niño developing during the May-July period and continuing through the winter.
El Niño phenomenon – one of the biggest changes in the Earth’s climate system greatly affects the Indian weather. The ocean phenomenon raises global temperatures and is known to dampen the monsoon, which provides more than 70% of the annual rainfall over India.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is now urging countries to prepare for El Niño, as “there is now a 60% chance of it developing during May-July, rising to 70-80% during July-September and 80% between July ) and September.
While the tropical Pacific is currently in ENSO-neutral – near its long-term average. But oceanographers have seen surface waters over the tropical Pacific Ocean warm significantly since February, which was one of the hottest months on record. The US-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says the intense warming near the coasts of South America has been “astonishing”.
Essentially, this indicates that the southwest monsoon is now likely to appear on the coast of Kerala under the shadow of El Niño – a phenomenon that has cast a negative influence on it. The update is worrisome especially for large parts of the Gangetic Plains where the pre-monsoon rains have also been bleak.
Normal monsoon despite El Nino?
Although there is no singular relationship between El Nino and the monsoon, it is generally associated with sub-par monsoons, and droughts in several parts. One of its worst impacts was seen during the summer of 2015, when a strong El Nino event reduced monsoon rainfall below normal across major parts of the country.
Of the 15 total El Niño years since 1951, nine have resulted in normal to below-normal rainfall. Not all El Niño years bring below normal rainfall.
The forecast is in line with that of the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), which is also confident that El Niño will occur this monsoon season. Scientists expect that the effect of El Nino on the monsoon will likely be felt during the second half. However, the IMD has stuck with its initial prediction of a “normal monsoon” with monsoon rainfall of at least 96% of the long-period average of 87 cm.
“No two El Niño events are the same and the effects depend in part on the time of year,” said MD Mohapatra, director general of the institute. The chief meteorologist also believes that the negative impact of El Niño may be counterbalanced by reduced snowfall over Eurasia and the positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), which could lead to a strengthening of the monsoons.
However, WMO Secretary-General Professor Petteri Taalas warned that the world should prepare for the development of El Niño, “which will most likely lead to a new rise in global warming and increase the chance of breaking temperature records”.
At this point there is no indication of the strength or duration of El Niño. But governments need to watch out, as forecasts during the spring suffer from lower accuracy and can lead to surprises, scientists say.
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