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ISTANBUL: Turkey’s biggest post-Ottoman election baffled pollsters and sparked surprises that underscore the difficulty of gauging the mood of the deeply polarized country.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan came within a fraction of a percentage point of defeating secular rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu in the first round.
Anyone’s ability to break the 50 percent threshold does not constitute a historic run-off on May 28 – the first in Turkey – that Erdogan will enter as the strong favourite.
Kilicdaroglu’s performance was the opposition’s best performance in Erdogan’s two decades of rule.
But the 74-year-old former staffer had to take over as chief of consolation in place of the president-elect on Monday.
“Don’t despair,” he told his desperate supporters.
AFP is looking at the main surprises on Sunday.
“It’s the economy, stupid,” strategist James Carville famously said to future US President Bill Clinton when he was trying to come up with a battle plan for his 1992 election campaign.
The case of Türkiye proves that the mantra has caveats.
Erdogan entered the election to fight the worst economic crisis Türkiye has seen since the 1990s.
The official annual inflation rate was 85 percent last year. The unofficial number calculated by economists – and trusted by most Turks – is closer to 200 per cent.
Erdogan fought it by refusing to abandon his unorthodox theories and instead offering incentives and wage increases to different segments of the population.
Analysts estimate the cost of his pledges to be in the billions of dollars.
“Last-minute spending promises – such as a 45 per cent wage increase for 700,000 government employees – helped,” said Hamish Kinnear, analyst at Verisk Maplecroft.
Erdogan’s promise to rebuild earthquake-ravaged areas also appears to have cut off voters.
Erdoğan maintained high levels of support in almost every district affected by the deadly February disaster.
Turkey’s long-oppressed Kurdish community represents nearly a fifth of the population and more than 10 percent of the vote.
It largely supported Erdoğan in the first decade of his rule and turned against him in the second.
Some analysts felt that the main pro-Kurdish party’s decision to officially endorse Kilicdaroglu might put him over the top.
But Erdogan used it against him by telling voters that the opposition was taking orders from the Kurdish PKK militia.
“Erdogan’s strategy to link the opposition, the PKK, and the terrorist movement has paid off,” said Bayram Balci of CERI Sciences Po.
Leyla Gurler, a housewife from Istanbul, said the opposition’s flirtation with the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) worried her.
“If the opposition won, it would be because of the Peoples’ Democratic Party and the PKK,” said the 57-year-old. They sided with the PKK. They made a mistake there.
Erdogan’s chances on May 28 were aided by the unexpected rise of the little-known ultra-nationalist Sinan Ogan.
The 55-year-old got 5.1 percent of the vote as an independent.
He was once a member of an ultra-nationalist party that is part of Erdogan’s parliamentary coalition and represents voters who have more in common with the Turkish leader than the left-wing Kilicdaroglu.
Analyst Umut Özkırimli said nationalism has been a “constant” component of Turkish politics since the 1990s.
Various nationalist and far-right groups took 22 percent of the vote in Sunday’s legislative ballot.
“The fact that Sinan Oğan won more than five percent of the vote confirms that pure ultra-nationalism is still very much alive in Turkey,” said Anthony Skinner, a political risk advisor.
“It will be a surprise if Ogan decides to lend his support behind moderate Kilicdaroglu in the second round of the presidential elections. Erdogan is in pole position on May 28.”
Pollsters in Türkiye have emerged as one of the biggest losers today.
Only a small part predicted Erdogan’s victory. Some put Kilicdaroglu ahead by 10 percentage points.
Emerging markets economist Timothy Ash noted: “It’s amazing how bad the polls are and most secular analysts describe this poll.”
The veteran Turkey-watcher attributed this to the pollsters’ ingrained political bias in a country with deeply polarized and deeply entrenched views.
“I have to say that all the analysts I trust, who are closer to (the ruling party), were saying that 50 to 50, too close to call, is biased towards Erdogan.”
Skinner noted that Kilicdaroglu’s party spent part of Sunday night claiming to be leading in the election and opposing the results reported by state media.
Opposition “Officials in the opposition have yet to explain why they are optimistic as the vote progresses. Was their models fundamentally flawed or was there something else at play?” Skinner told AFP.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan came within a fraction of a percentage point of defeating secular rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu in the first round.
Anyone’s ability to break the 50 percent threshold does not constitute a historic run-off on May 28 – the first in Turkey – that Erdogan will enter as the strong favourite.
Kilicdaroglu’s performance was the opposition’s best performance in Erdogan’s two decades of rule.
But the 74-year-old former staffer had to take over as chief of consolation in place of the president-elect on Monday.
“Don’t despair,” he told his desperate supporters.
AFP is looking at the main surprises on Sunday.
“It’s the economy, stupid,” strategist James Carville famously said to future US President Bill Clinton when he was trying to come up with a battle plan for his 1992 election campaign.
The case of Türkiye proves that the mantra has caveats.
Erdogan entered the election to fight the worst economic crisis Türkiye has seen since the 1990s.
The official annual inflation rate was 85 percent last year. The unofficial number calculated by economists – and trusted by most Turks – is closer to 200 per cent.
Erdogan fought it by refusing to abandon his unorthodox theories and instead offering incentives and wage increases to different segments of the population.
Analysts estimate the cost of his pledges to be in the billions of dollars.
“Last-minute spending promises – such as a 45 per cent wage increase for 700,000 government employees – helped,” said Hamish Kinnear, analyst at Verisk Maplecroft.
Erdogan’s promise to rebuild earthquake-ravaged areas also appears to have cut off voters.
Erdoğan maintained high levels of support in almost every district affected by the deadly February disaster.
Turkey’s long-oppressed Kurdish community represents nearly a fifth of the population and more than 10 percent of the vote.
It largely supported Erdoğan in the first decade of his rule and turned against him in the second.
Some analysts felt that the main pro-Kurdish party’s decision to officially endorse Kilicdaroglu might put him over the top.
But Erdogan used it against him by telling voters that the opposition was taking orders from the Kurdish PKK militia.
“Erdogan’s strategy to link the opposition, the PKK, and the terrorist movement has paid off,” said Bayram Balci of CERI Sciences Po.
Leyla Gurler, a housewife from Istanbul, said the opposition’s flirtation with the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) worried her.
“If the opposition won, it would be because of the Peoples’ Democratic Party and the PKK,” said the 57-year-old. They sided with the PKK. They made a mistake there.
Erdogan’s chances on May 28 were aided by the unexpected rise of the little-known ultra-nationalist Sinan Ogan.
The 55-year-old got 5.1 percent of the vote as an independent.
He was once a member of an ultra-nationalist party that is part of Erdogan’s parliamentary coalition and represents voters who have more in common with the Turkish leader than the left-wing Kilicdaroglu.
Analyst Umut Özkırimli said nationalism has been a “constant” component of Turkish politics since the 1990s.
Various nationalist and far-right groups took 22 percent of the vote in Sunday’s legislative ballot.
“The fact that Sinan Oğan won more than five percent of the vote confirms that pure ultra-nationalism is still very much alive in Turkey,” said Anthony Skinner, a political risk advisor.
“It will be a surprise if Ogan decides to lend his support behind moderate Kilicdaroglu in the second round of the presidential elections. Erdogan is in pole position on May 28.”
Pollsters in Türkiye have emerged as one of the biggest losers today.
Only a small part predicted Erdogan’s victory. Some put Kilicdaroglu ahead by 10 percentage points.
Emerging markets economist Timothy Ash noted: “It’s amazing how bad the polls are and most secular analysts describe this poll.”
The veteran Turkey-watcher attributed this to the pollsters’ ingrained political bias in a country with deeply polarized and deeply entrenched views.
“I have to say that all the analysts I trust, who are closer to (the ruling party), were saying that 50 to 50, too close to call, is biased towards Erdogan.”
Skinner noted that Kilicdaroglu’s party spent part of Sunday night claiming to be leading in the election and opposing the results reported by state media.
Opposition “Officials in the opposition have yet to explain why they are optimistic as the vote progresses. Was their models fundamentally flawed or was there something else at play?” Skinner told AFP.
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