Nine years of Modi govt: A mixed record on internal security

In J&K, the government is successful on the public order front, but infiltration of foreign terrorists continues, civilians are targeted, and there is a resurgence of terrorism in Jammu.

The North East has witnessed a long period of peace under the Modi government, and several ceasefire and peace agreements have been signed with rebel groups. But the government failed to conclude the Naga peace agreement and the ongoing deadly ethnic clashes in Manipur are a matter of grave concern.

LWE Theatre

In April 2006, the then Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, called Naxalism “the single biggest internal security challenge India has ever faced”. The Modi government inherited a security system in India’s LWE regions that was already geared to challenging the Maoists in their strongholds and was constantly advancing into their core regions. Indeed, by 2014, Maoism was virtually over or was on its last legs in states like West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, and Odisha. Andra has already kicked them out.

The NDA government embarked on what it called the “final push” against the Maoists. Not only did it conduct intelligence operations in Maoist core areas like Bastar in Chhattisgarh and Gadchiroli in Maharashtra, but it also involved setting up camps deep in the jungles to ensure the existence of the state. This was coupled with building roads, setting up cell phone towers, and helping the state police forces modernize and train them to fight the Maoists. All this required close coordination with the state governments, which took the initiative and cooperated.

The result was that the government reduced the number of areas affected by LWE from 96 in 2010 to just 46 in 2021. According to data from the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), deaths in this period decreased from 1,005 to 147, and acts of violence by LWE actors decreased from 2,213. to 509.

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According to the ministry, the Modi era saw a 50% reduction in violent acts by LWE actors compared to the UPA system. Related deaths in these incidents decreased by 66%, and deaths among security forces decreased by 71%. This coincided with a 140% increase in Maoist surrender.

However, the Maoists, pushed from all sides, have stationed themselves in the Bastar district of Chhattisgarh, which continues to be a challenge to the security forces. According to government data submitted to parliament, in the five years from 2018 to 2022, there were 1,132 “left-wing extremist violent incidents” in which 168 members of the security forces and 335 civilians lost their lives. Chhattisgarh was responsible for more than a third of all Maoist-related violence in this period, but more worryingly, 70-90% of deaths were more.

The graph of violence in Chhattisgarh in this period has had its ups and downs: Maoists carried out 275 attacks in 2018; 182 in 2019; 241 in 2020; 188 in 2021; And again, 246 in 2022. Until the end of February 2023, 37 attacks were carried out by Maoists in the state, in which 17 people were killed, including 7 members of the security forces.

J&K Theatre

From announcing a ₹80,000 crore package in 2015 to fighting the Burhan Wani crisis of 2016, from extending an olive branch to dissident youth through hubs to putting Hurriyat leaders behind bars, from running a government in alliance with the People’s Democratic Party to dividing the country into two regions Confederate and grab its own status, the Modi government has been administratively and politically occupied with Jammu and Kashmir.

Arguably the Modi government’s most important legislative decision was the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganization Act, which was passed by Parliament in August 2019. While opposition and Kashmir leaders called it injustice and a breach of trust by the Indian government, Home Minister Amit Shah argued that Article 370 had bred corruption and separation in Kashmir It was very important to remove them to end terrorism in the country.

With an unprecedented number of security forces in Kashmir, and strict measures taken by central agencies such as the National Intelligence Agency, stone-throwing incidents in the valley have been reduced to almost zero, and terrorist incidents have seen a decrease.

According to government data, “terrorist acts” have decreased by 32% since August 5, 2019 (until June 6, 2022), compared to the same period that preceded those major decisions. Security forces deaths witnessed a 52% decrease, and a 14% decrease among civilians. A 14% decrease in terrorist infiltration across borders was also recorded.

Despite these successes, a series of killings of civilians, particularly of Kashmiri Hindus and non-Kashmiris residing in the valley, has exposed the fragility of the security scenario in Kashmir. More than 50% of all civilians killed in the valley since August 5, 2019, have been killed in the past eight months.

This coincided with attempts by militants to attack Hindu-dominated areas of Jammu, which last saw such attacks in the early 2000s. In 2021, J&K Police arrested nearly 20 militants and recovered several IEDs that were intended to target Hindu areas. The year 2022 began with the killing of Hindu civilians in Jammu, something we haven’t seen in this division for years. The Jammu border also saw frequent infiltrations and gun battles with the army, in which more than a dozen members of the armed forces were killed, even as the attackers remained out of reach.

Northeast

The Modi government made clear its priorities with regard to the North East in its early years by announcing the policy of “act east”. The government focused on signing peace agreements with rebel groups and bringing them to the negotiating table, even as it embarked on a comprehensive surrender and rehabilitation policy for the militants.

Over the past nine years, the government has signed agreements with Bodo groups, United People’s Front (UPF) and Koki National Organization in Manipur, Karbi Anglong groups in Assam, National Liberation Front of Tripura and Karbi Lungri NC Liberation Front, among others.

In the aftermath of the Assam-Mizoram border conflict in 2021 in which five Assam police personnel were killed by the Mizoram police, the government has accelerated border negotiations between various states in the North East. Talks on the Assam-Arunachal border, pending since the 1970s, have been completed and the border dispute between Assam and Meghalaya has been partially resolved.

According to the government, there was a 68% decrease in violent incidents, and a 60% decrease in deaths of security forces and civilians in the North East during the Modi regime compared to the UPA period.

The most significant step taken by the government in the Northeast was the removal of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) from various districts in all states in the region.

While Tripura and Meghalaya are now completely AFSPA-free, 60% of the geographic area in Assam is not under the law. In Manipur, the government removed the AFSPA from 15 police stations in six districts, and in Nagaland it removed it from 15 police stations in seven districts. In Arunachal, the SADF Special Forces Act is only in force in three districts, and in two police stations in one district.

However, 13 innocent civilians were tragically killed by the Indian Army in Mon district of Nagaland in December 2021. In April this year, the center refused to punish 30 army officers involved in the killing.

Despite all its agreements with the rebel groups, the government failed to sign the most important of them: the Naga Peace Accord. Although it was announced in 2015, the government has failed to make any progress. Until recently, when the interviewer was at Naga RN Ravi in ​​Nagaland, negotiations degenerated into a public row between Ravi and NSCN President (IM) Th Muivah.

The burning of Manipur has been going on for more than a month now – despite the personal intervention of Home Minister Shah.

Jihadist terrorism

By the time Modi’s government came to power, the Indian mujahideen had already been wiped out. With the emergence of a new Islamic State phenomenon with some young Muslims from India joining the group in Syria and Iraq, the government has taken the approach of prevention over cure.

The agencies monitored social media activities discussing the Islamic State’s ideology, and advised potential recruits off it. Many attacks were prevented through this surveillance, after potential perpetrators were arrested at the planning stage.

In this sequence, the government also took some controversial steps which included amending the NIA and UAPA Act to allow the government to designate even individuals as terrorists. The recent ban on the Indian People’s Front has also been criticized.