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MOSCOW (Reuters) – Rebel mercenaries who briefly seized a Russian military headquarters went on an ill-fated march towards Moscow on Sunday, but the short-lived insurgency weakened President Vladimir Putin as his forces faced a fierce counteroffensive in Ukraine.
Under the terms of the agreement that ended the crisis, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who led it Wagner forces In the failed uprising, he will go into exile in Belarus but will not face trial.
But it is not clear what will happen to him and his forces in the end. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who brokered the deal, released some details. Neither Prigozhin nor Putin have ever heard of nor higher Russian military leaders They also remained silent.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called the weekend’s events “extraordinary,” recalling that 16 months ago Putin seemed poised to seize Ukraine’s capital, and now he must defend Moscow against the forces he once protected.
“I think we’ve seen more cracks appear on the Russian front,” Blinken said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”
“It’s too early to say exactly where they’re going and when they’ll get there, but we certainly have all sorts of new questions that Putin will have to address in the coming weeks and months.”
It is not yet clear what the divisions triggered by the 24-hour insurgency will mean for the war in Ukraine. But it did result in the withdrawal of some of Russia’s best fighting forces from the battlefield: Wagner’s troops, who had shown their effectiveness in scoring the Kremlin’s only land victory in months, at Bakhmut, sent Chechen soldiers to stop them from approaching. to Moscow.
The rapid advance of Wagner’s forces largely unopposed also exposed the weaknesses of the Russian security and military forces. It was reported that the mercenary soldiers shot down several helicopters and a military communications plane. The Ministry of Defense has not commented.
“I honestly believe that Wagner may have done more damage to the Russian Aerospace Forces in the past day than the Ukrainian attack did in the last three weeks,” Michael Kaufman, director of Russian studies at the CNA Research Group, said in a podcast.
The Ukrainians had hoped that the Russian infighting would create opportunities for their army, which is in the early stages of a counter-offensive to retake territory captured by Russian forces.
Lord Richard Dannatt, former chief of the British Armed Forces General Staff, said: “Putin is very much diminished and the Russian military, and that matters in terms of Ukraine. … Prigozhin left the stage to go to Belarus, but is this the end of Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Wagner Group?”
Under the terms of the agreement that halted Prigozhin’s advance, Wagner’s soldiers who did not support the rebellion would be offered direct contracts with the Russian army, placing them under the control of the military officers Prigozhin was trying to overthrow. A possible trigger for Prigozhin’s rebellion was the Defense Ministry’s demand, which Putin has supported, that private companies sign contracts with it by July 1. Prigozhin refused to do so.
“What we don’t know, but we’ll find out in the coming hours and days is, how many of his fighters have gone with him, because if he goes to Belarus and keeps an effective fighting force around him, then … he’s a threat again” to Ukraine, Dannatt said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he told US President Joe Biden in a phone call on Sunday that the aborted insurgency in Russia had “exposed the weakness of the Putin regime.”
In a lightning advance, Prigozhin’s forces took control of two military centers in southern Russia on Saturday and moved 200 km from Moscow before retreating.
People in Rostov-on-Don cheered Wagner’s soldiers as they left late Saturday, a sight that led Putin to fear a popular uprising. Some ran to shake his hand as he drove away in an SUV.
However, the rebellion soon petered out, in part because Prigozhin was not having the support he had apparently expected from the Russian security services. The federal security services immediately called for his arrest.
“It’s clear that Prigozhin has lost his temper,” retired US General David Petraeus, former director of the CIA, said on CNN’s “State of the Union” program.
“This rebellion, though it did get some applause along the way, didn’t seem to generate the kind of support he had hoped it would.”
Rostov appeared calm on Sunday morning, with only tank tracks lining the roads as reminders of the Wagner fighters.
“It all ended well, thank God. With minimal casualties, I think. Good job,” said a resident who agreed only to give his first name, Sergei. Wagner soldiers used to be heroes to him, he said, but not now.
In the Lipetsk region, which lies on the road to Moscow, residents seemed unfazed by the unrest.
“They didn’t disrupt anything. They just stood quietly on the sidewalk and didn’t approach or speak to anyone.”
As Wagner’s forces moved north towards Moscow, Russian troops armed with machine guns set up checkpoints on the outskirts. By Sunday afternoon, the troops had withdrawn and traffic had returned to normal, although Red Square remained closed to visitors. On the highways to Moscow, crews repaired roads in panic hours before.
Announcers on state-controlled television stations described the deal that ended the crisis as a show of Putin’s wisdom, broadcasting footage of Wagner’s soldiers withdrawing from Rostov to the relief of local residents who feared a bloody battle for control of the city. People interviewed by Channel One there praised Putin’s handling of the crisis.
But the revolution and the deal that ended it severely damaged Putin’s reputation as a leader willing to harshly punish anyone who challenges his authority.
Prigozhin had demanded the ouster of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, whom Prigozhin had long criticized in deathly terms for the way he conducted the war in Ukraine.
The United States had intelligence that Prigozhin had been massing his forces near the border with Russia for some time. This contradicts Prigozhin’s claim that his rebellion was in response to an attack by the Russian military on his field camps in Ukraine on Friday, which he says killed a large number of his men. The Ministry of Defense denied attacking the camps.
US Rep. Mike Turner, who chairs the House Intelligence Committee, said Prigozhin’s march to Moscow appears to have been planned in advance.
“Now, as a military man, he understands the logistics and the assistance he would really need to do that,” Turner said on CBS’s “Face the Nation,” including from some Russians on the border with Ukraine who supported him.
“This is something that had to be planned for a long period of time to be executed the way it was done,” he said.
Under the terms of the agreement that ended the crisis, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who led it Wagner forces In the failed uprising, he will go into exile in Belarus but will not face trial.
But it is not clear what will happen to him and his forces in the end. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who brokered the deal, released some details. Neither Prigozhin nor Putin have ever heard of nor higher Russian military leaders They also remained silent.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called the weekend’s events “extraordinary,” recalling that 16 months ago Putin seemed poised to seize Ukraine’s capital, and now he must defend Moscow against the forces he once protected.
“I think we’ve seen more cracks appear on the Russian front,” Blinken said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”
“It’s too early to say exactly where they’re going and when they’ll get there, but we certainly have all sorts of new questions that Putin will have to address in the coming weeks and months.”
It is not yet clear what the divisions triggered by the 24-hour insurgency will mean for the war in Ukraine. But it did result in the withdrawal of some of Russia’s best fighting forces from the battlefield: Wagner’s troops, who had shown their effectiveness in scoring the Kremlin’s only land victory in months, at Bakhmut, sent Chechen soldiers to stop them from approaching. to Moscow.
The rapid advance of Wagner’s forces largely unopposed also exposed the weaknesses of the Russian security and military forces. It was reported that the mercenary soldiers shot down several helicopters and a military communications plane. The Ministry of Defense has not commented.
“I honestly believe that Wagner may have done more damage to the Russian Aerospace Forces in the past day than the Ukrainian attack did in the last three weeks,” Michael Kaufman, director of Russian studies at the CNA Research Group, said in a podcast.
The Ukrainians had hoped that the Russian infighting would create opportunities for their army, which is in the early stages of a counter-offensive to retake territory captured by Russian forces.
Lord Richard Dannatt, former chief of the British Armed Forces General Staff, said: “Putin is very much diminished and the Russian military, and that matters in terms of Ukraine. … Prigozhin left the stage to go to Belarus, but is this the end of Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Wagner Group?”
Under the terms of the agreement that halted Prigozhin’s advance, Wagner’s soldiers who did not support the rebellion would be offered direct contracts with the Russian army, placing them under the control of the military officers Prigozhin was trying to overthrow. A possible trigger for Prigozhin’s rebellion was the Defense Ministry’s demand, which Putin has supported, that private companies sign contracts with it by July 1. Prigozhin refused to do so.
“What we don’t know, but we’ll find out in the coming hours and days is, how many of his fighters have gone with him, because if he goes to Belarus and keeps an effective fighting force around him, then … he’s a threat again” to Ukraine, Dannatt said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he told US President Joe Biden in a phone call on Sunday that the aborted insurgency in Russia had “exposed the weakness of the Putin regime.”
In a lightning advance, Prigozhin’s forces took control of two military centers in southern Russia on Saturday and moved 200 km from Moscow before retreating.
People in Rostov-on-Don cheered Wagner’s soldiers as they left late Saturday, a sight that led Putin to fear a popular uprising. Some ran to shake his hand as he drove away in an SUV.
However, the rebellion soon petered out, in part because Prigozhin was not having the support he had apparently expected from the Russian security services. The federal security services immediately called for his arrest.
“It’s clear that Prigozhin has lost his temper,” retired US General David Petraeus, former director of the CIA, said on CNN’s “State of the Union” program.
“This rebellion, though it did get some applause along the way, didn’t seem to generate the kind of support he had hoped it would.”
Rostov appeared calm on Sunday morning, with only tank tracks lining the roads as reminders of the Wagner fighters.
“It all ended well, thank God. With minimal casualties, I think. Good job,” said a resident who agreed only to give his first name, Sergei. Wagner soldiers used to be heroes to him, he said, but not now.
In the Lipetsk region, which lies on the road to Moscow, residents seemed unfazed by the unrest.
“They didn’t disrupt anything. They just stood quietly on the sidewalk and didn’t approach or speak to anyone.”
As Wagner’s forces moved north towards Moscow, Russian troops armed with machine guns set up checkpoints on the outskirts. By Sunday afternoon, the troops had withdrawn and traffic had returned to normal, although Red Square remained closed to visitors. On the highways to Moscow, crews repaired roads in panic hours before.
Announcers on state-controlled television stations described the deal that ended the crisis as a show of Putin’s wisdom, broadcasting footage of Wagner’s soldiers withdrawing from Rostov to the relief of local residents who feared a bloody battle for control of the city. People interviewed by Channel One there praised Putin’s handling of the crisis.
But the revolution and the deal that ended it severely damaged Putin’s reputation as a leader willing to harshly punish anyone who challenges his authority.
Prigozhin had demanded the ouster of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, whom Prigozhin had long criticized in deathly terms for the way he conducted the war in Ukraine.
The United States had intelligence that Prigozhin had been massing his forces near the border with Russia for some time. This contradicts Prigozhin’s claim that his rebellion was in response to an attack by the Russian military on his field camps in Ukraine on Friday, which he says killed a large number of his men. The Ministry of Defense denied attacking the camps.
US Rep. Mike Turner, who chairs the House Intelligence Committee, said Prigozhin’s march to Moscow appears to have been planned in advance.
“Now, as a military man, he understands the logistics and the assistance he would really need to do that,” Turner said on CBS’s “Face the Nation,” including from some Russians on the border with Ukraine who supported him.
“This is something that had to be planned for a long period of time to be executed the way it was done,” he said.
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