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BEIJING: Since Russia invaded Ukraine last year, it seemed that Xi Jinping’s gamble on his “borderless” friendship with Vladimir Putin might backfire. This weekend’s brief uprising against Moscow has once again highlighted the dangers facing the Chinese leader.
China gave Putin confidence on Sunday, noting the Russian president’s strong relationship with Xi while saying it was necessary to “protect the common interests of both sides” amid a “complicated and dangerous international situation”. He was directly asked about Putin’s deal with Head of Wagner Yevgeny PrigozhinChina’s foreign ministry said it supports Russia’s attempt to maintain “national stability” in dealing with “internal affairs”.
But despite the show of support, Putin’s staggering challenge to power immediately raised questions about the long-term ramifications for Xi — from his ideological battle with the United States to his grip on power, which was called into question last year during rare nationwide anti-Covid protests. restrictions.
“This kind of messy conclusion can only be seen as a loss for Beijing,” said Raffaello Pantucci, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore. It highlights the fragility of its most important partner on the world stage, it highlights the vulnerability of the man President Xi has sought to show himself close to, and if it leads to the end of the war, it will liberate some Westerners. The assets to refocus on China.”
While Xi consolidated power last year to secure a precedent-defying third term and face no immediate threat to his rule, his diplomatic support for Putin in the aftermath of the war has linked the two men more closely. Both oversee authoritarian governments that possess nuclear weapons and oppose the democratic values espoused by the United States and its allies.
Even the prospect of forcing Putin out of power — a scenario that seemed plausible before Prigozhin suddenly turned his forces away from Moscow — threatens to spill over into the establishment in Beijing. Over the weekend, a Weibo account run by the People’s Liberation Army ran a post about how Mao Zedong revamped the military in 1927 to ensure the Communist Party retains absolute control, highlighting the danger of Putin’s reliance on private armies like those run by Prigozhin.
Although Xi sought to consolidate his control over the Chinese armed forces, it is uncertain whether he had complete command. When US President Joe Biden referred to Xi as a dictator last week, he claimed Xi was embarrassed because he didn’t know that an alleged spy balloon was flying over the US in February — an incident that sent relations between the world’s largest economies into a tailspin.
said Tai-Mingqiong, director of the University of California’s Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation and author of Fortifying China: The Struggle to Build a Modern Defense Economy.
He added, “It’s very early days yet, but I’m sure the Chinese military press, when it comes up, will be the cause of the military’s renewed loyalty both to the Communist Party, but especially to Xi Jinping.” .
As international sanctions on Russia make Xi’s relationship with Putin increasingly unequal, China can further squeeze its economic advantage. Beijing has already promoted the use of the yuan in trade with Russia, demonstrating its usefulness as an alternative to the dominance of the dollar.
China has also bought more than $95 billion in Russian energy since the invasion, providing an important source of financing for Putin’s war machine. But over-reliance on Russia for energy also carries risks: RBC Capital Markets LLC analysts including Helima Croft said in a note on Sunday that the threat of civil unrest in Russia should now be factored into oil analysis for the latter half of the year.
While the economic costs of Putin’s invasion reveal the difficulties in managing the war, they will not necessarily dissuade Xi from his military objectives in Taiwan, the self-governing island that China claims as its own, according to Ja Ian Zhong, an associate professor. Political Science at the National University of Singapore.
At the same time, it’s a reminder of what can go wrong once war breaks out, said Wen Te Song, a lecturer at the Australian National University. He cited a saying from Sun Tzu, author of The Art of War, that generals on the battlefield are not always bound by orders from the ruler.
“Wars always carry the risk of endangering civilian control of the military,” Song said. “So Beijing will be more cautious than ever about starting a Taiwan dispute.”
China slowly began creating some distance with Russia over a period of months, warning against the use of nuclear weapons and calling for the protection of civilians after the destruction of a dam in Ukraine. Xi has also sent an envoy to Ukraine to try to help end the conflict, although few countries see China as a neutral mediator.
For now, China’s strategy appears to support Putin’s ability to govern publicly, without tying Xi too closely to the Russian leader until the full ramifications of the weekend are clear. While China’s remarks mentioned Putin by name, Xi has yet to hold a public call with the Russian leader, unlike Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi.
“There is no doubt that Beijing will carefully scrutinize the effectiveness of Russia’s war on Ukraine and the pitfalls it has faced so far,” said Elena Collinson, senior project and research officer at the University of Technology’s Institute of Australia-China Relations. Sydney. Russia’s strategic value as a partner to China will decline dramatically with the failure of invading Ukraine or overthrowing Putin.
China gave Putin confidence on Sunday, noting the Russian president’s strong relationship with Xi while saying it was necessary to “protect the common interests of both sides” amid a “complicated and dangerous international situation”. He was directly asked about Putin’s deal with Head of Wagner Yevgeny PrigozhinChina’s foreign ministry said it supports Russia’s attempt to maintain “national stability” in dealing with “internal affairs”.
But despite the show of support, Putin’s staggering challenge to power immediately raised questions about the long-term ramifications for Xi — from his ideological battle with the United States to his grip on power, which was called into question last year during rare nationwide anti-Covid protests. restrictions.
“This kind of messy conclusion can only be seen as a loss for Beijing,” said Raffaello Pantucci, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore. It highlights the fragility of its most important partner on the world stage, it highlights the vulnerability of the man President Xi has sought to show himself close to, and if it leads to the end of the war, it will liberate some Westerners. The assets to refocus on China.”
While Xi consolidated power last year to secure a precedent-defying third term and face no immediate threat to his rule, his diplomatic support for Putin in the aftermath of the war has linked the two men more closely. Both oversee authoritarian governments that possess nuclear weapons and oppose the democratic values espoused by the United States and its allies.
Even the prospect of forcing Putin out of power — a scenario that seemed plausible before Prigozhin suddenly turned his forces away from Moscow — threatens to spill over into the establishment in Beijing. Over the weekend, a Weibo account run by the People’s Liberation Army ran a post about how Mao Zedong revamped the military in 1927 to ensure the Communist Party retains absolute control, highlighting the danger of Putin’s reliance on private armies like those run by Prigozhin.
Although Xi sought to consolidate his control over the Chinese armed forces, it is uncertain whether he had complete command. When US President Joe Biden referred to Xi as a dictator last week, he claimed Xi was embarrassed because he didn’t know that an alleged spy balloon was flying over the US in February — an incident that sent relations between the world’s largest economies into a tailspin.
said Tai-Mingqiong, director of the University of California’s Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation and author of Fortifying China: The Struggle to Build a Modern Defense Economy.
He added, “It’s very early days yet, but I’m sure the Chinese military press, when it comes up, will be the cause of the military’s renewed loyalty both to the Communist Party, but especially to Xi Jinping.” .
As international sanctions on Russia make Xi’s relationship with Putin increasingly unequal, China can further squeeze its economic advantage. Beijing has already promoted the use of the yuan in trade with Russia, demonstrating its usefulness as an alternative to the dominance of the dollar.
China has also bought more than $95 billion in Russian energy since the invasion, providing an important source of financing for Putin’s war machine. But over-reliance on Russia for energy also carries risks: RBC Capital Markets LLC analysts including Helima Croft said in a note on Sunday that the threat of civil unrest in Russia should now be factored into oil analysis for the latter half of the year.
While the economic costs of Putin’s invasion reveal the difficulties in managing the war, they will not necessarily dissuade Xi from his military objectives in Taiwan, the self-governing island that China claims as its own, according to Ja Ian Zhong, an associate professor. Political Science at the National University of Singapore.
At the same time, it’s a reminder of what can go wrong once war breaks out, said Wen Te Song, a lecturer at the Australian National University. He cited a saying from Sun Tzu, author of The Art of War, that generals on the battlefield are not always bound by orders from the ruler.
“Wars always carry the risk of endangering civilian control of the military,” Song said. “So Beijing will be more cautious than ever about starting a Taiwan dispute.”
China slowly began creating some distance with Russia over a period of months, warning against the use of nuclear weapons and calling for the protection of civilians after the destruction of a dam in Ukraine. Xi has also sent an envoy to Ukraine to try to help end the conflict, although few countries see China as a neutral mediator.
For now, China’s strategy appears to support Putin’s ability to govern publicly, without tying Xi too closely to the Russian leader until the full ramifications of the weekend are clear. While China’s remarks mentioned Putin by name, Xi has yet to hold a public call with the Russian leader, unlike Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi.
“There is no doubt that Beijing will carefully scrutinize the effectiveness of Russia’s war on Ukraine and the pitfalls it has faced so far,” said Elena Collinson, senior project and research officer at the University of Technology’s Institute of Australia-China Relations. Sydney. Russia’s strategic value as a partner to China will decline dramatically with the failure of invading Ukraine or overthrowing Putin.
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