Eli Lilly weight loss pill may best Pfizer, Novo Nordisk drugs

Drugmakers are vying to cash in on the next major innovation to come to the popular weight loss industry: effective, convenient, and affordable obesity pills.

appreciate 40% of adults in the United States Obese, which makes successful birth control pills a huge opportunity.

It’s too early to crown a winner, especially since pivotal data from several drug companies is set to emerge later this year. And there remains a very important question of pricing for the major players.

but now, Oral experimental drug from Eli Lilly It seems to have an advantage over the pill Novo Nordisk And Pfizer – though it may not get US approval first.

The three manufacturers are developing oral versions of GLP-1s, a class of drugs that mimic a hormone produced in the gut to suppress a person’s appetite. Novo Nordisk’s popular Wegovy and Ozempic treatments, which sparked a gold rush in the weight loss industry last year, are weekly injections of GLP-1 also known as semaglutide.

Pills are easier to make than injections Single use pens. This means that oral medications can help relieve Shortage of supplies infect their counterparts by injection.

Pills are usually cheaper than injections, although it is unclear if this is the case with obesity pills.

Wegovy list price exceeds $1,300 per month package, and Ozempic is About $935. Novo Nordisk contains a low dose of oral semaglutide Same price list Ozempic for a monthly pack of 30 tablets. This pill is marketed as RepelsusOnly approved for type 2 diabetes.

None of the three drug companies provided estimates of how much new obesity pills would cost.

Novo Nordisk has one important advantage: The Danish company has already released Phase 3 clinical trial results for its high-dose version of oral semaglutide, intended for weight management, and told CNBC it expects to file for FDA approval later this year. year.

Eli Lilly is still in the middle of Phase 3 clinical trials for its oral medication, orforglipron, which means it will likely come to market later.

Analysts remain confident in orforglipron’s long-term competitive advantage, especially after Eli Lilly’s revelations Results of a phase II clinical trial Last week I presented the powerful efficacy profile of the drug.

According to Eli Lilly’s Phase 2 results, overweight or obese patients who took 45 milligrams of orforglipron once a day lost 14.7% of body weight After 36 weeks. This compares to a weight loss of 2.3% for people who received a placebo.

Eli Lilly’s results seem consistent with the weight loss resulting from the Novo Nordisk birth control pill, but were achieved over a shorter trial period.

Overweight or obese patients who took 50 milligrams of Novo Nordisk once a day saw an average weight loss of 15.1% after 68 weeks, according to results from a phase III clinical trial released Sunday.

Bank of America analyst Jeff Meacham said in a research note Sunday that Eli Lilly’s available data for orforglipron “compares favorably” to Novo Nordisk’s oral semaglutide, “regardless of the caveats of comparing cross-trial trials.”

Louise Chen, an analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald, told CNBC that Orforglipron could achieve a greater level of weight loss over a longer trial period.

“The more you use these medications, the more you will notice weight loss until you hit a plateau, right?” Chen said. “So the idea is, if you’re getting close to losing weight on semaglutide roughly in about half the time with orforglipron, you’re probably going to outpace it.”

The hope, Chen said, is that orforglipron will lead to a reduction similar to Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide injection, which led to weight loss. about 22% after 72 weeks.

The company’s Phase 3 clinical trial of orforglipron will study the drug over longer periods of time.

For now at least, analysts say Eli Lilly’s pill may also have the upper hand over Pfizer’s oral GLP-1, danuglipron, which is still in Phase II clinical trials.

Type 2 diabetics who took a 120-milligram version of danuglipron twice a day I lost about 10 lbs On average after 16 weeks, according to the results of a phase II clinical trial.

It is difficult to compare the effectiveness of danuglipron with that of other oral GLP-1s because of the varying number of patients and the lack of long-term data on the drug.

A Pfizer spokesperson told CNBC that the company is still considering the drug in phase 2 clinical trials and “will also look to obtain longer data” after the 16-week mark in the future.

Health experts seem to agree: “Patient compliance increases a lot if it’s a once-a-day pill, so it’s definitely a huge advantage. People often end up missing out a few times a week if they have to take something twice a day,” she says. He said Dr. John Yuna professor of endocrinology at the University of California, Davis Health.

Pfizer is developing a daily version of danuglipron.

Also Monday, the company said it would halt development of another experimental pill, lutigliprone, which Bansal said is the “most attractive GLP-1” in Pfizer’s portfolio because it is only taken once a day. Pfizer shares fell 5% Monday after that news.

But Pfizer and Eli Lilly share one key advantage over Novo Nordisk’s oral semaglutide: There are no dietary restrictions.

Patients need to take Novo Nordisk’s oral semaglutide in the morning on an empty stomach with no more than four ounces of plain water, according to FDA label For the lower dose, the approved version of the drug. They are told to wait 30 minutes before eating, drinking, or taking other oral medications.

This is because Novo Nordisk’s oral semaglutide is a peptide medication, which is difficult for the intestines to absorb, according to Dr. Eduardo Grunwaldmedical director of the Center for Advanced Weight Management at the University of California, San Diego.

“If you take it with food or a drink, it won’t be absorbed efficiently,” Grunwald told CNBC.

He said the pills from Eli Lilly and Pfizer are non-peptide GLP-1s, which are more easily absorbed and don’t require dietary restrictions.

Market research indicates these restrictions are a “major negative for patients,” said Chen of Cantor Fitzgerald, making Eli Lilly and Pfizer pills convenient alternatives.

Overall, Eli Lilly’s Orforglipron appears to be the top contender in the weight loss pill space due to its strong efficacy data and convenience as a once-daily pill without dietary restrictions.

But Chen stressed that the data revealed later this year could likely change that: “Give some space for new data to come.”

For health experts like Grunvald, naming a winner in the oral weight loss drug space is less important.

“I think this oral GLP-1 means there are more tools in our toolbox, and we have more options for different people who may react differently to different medications,” he said. “This really is the future of all of this.”