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LONDON: Russia’s top generals have withdrawn from public view following a failed mercenary revolt aimed at ousting senior officers amid a crackdown by President Vladimir. put it in to assert his authority.
Unconfirmed reports indicate that at least one person has been arrested.
Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov He has not appeared in public or on state television since Saturday’s aborted rebellion when he was the leader of the mercenaries Yevgeny Prigozhin He demanded the extradition of Gerasimov. Nor has it been mentioned in a Defense Department press release since June 9.
According to some Western military analysts, Gerasimov, 67, is the leader of Russia’s war in Ukraine, and the bearer of one of Russia’s “three nuclear briefcases.”
Missing the show is also a year Even Sergey SurovikDubbed “General Armageddon” in the Russian press for his aggressive tactics in the Syrian conflict, he is the deputy commander of Russian forces in Ukraine.
A New York Times report, based on a US intelligence brief, said on Tuesday that he had foreknowledge of the insurrection and that Russian authorities were investigating whether he was complicit.
On Wednesday, the Kremlin downplayed the report, saying there would be a lot of speculation and gossip.
US officials told Reuters on Wednesday that Surovkin was supporting Prigozhin, but that Western intelligence services were not sure if he had aided the insurgency in any way.
The Russian edition of the Moscow Times and a military blogger reported on Surovikin’s arrest, while some other military correspondent who leads a large following in Russia said he and other senior officers were interrogated by the FSB to verify their loyalty.
Reuters was unable to determine if Surovikin was arrested or, along with others, was screened for reliability in a standard exercise.
Rybar, an influencer on messaging app Telegram run by a former press officer for the Russian Defense Ministry, said a purge was underway.
He said the authorities were trying to weed out military personnel believed to have shown a “lack of decisiveness” in suppressing the rebellion amid some reports that parts of the armed forces did not appear to have done much to stop the Wagner fighters in the early phase of the war. insurgency.
“The armed rebellion carried out by the private military company Wagner became a pretext for a large-scale purge in the ranks of the Russian armed forces,” Ribar said.
Such a move, if confirmed, could change the way Russia wages its war in Ukraine – which it calls a “special military operation” – and cause unrest in the ranks of the forces at a time when Moscow is trying to thwart a Ukrainian counterattack.
He could also consolidate or elevate other senior military and security figures deemed loyal.
There was no official comment on what was going on from the Ministry of Defense.
Winners and losers
Some Russian and Western military and political analysts believe that Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, a veteran Putin ally whom Prigozhin wanted to bring down along with Gerasimov over his alleged incompetence, may now be more secure in his job.
“I think he (Prigozhin) actually expected something to be done about Shoigu and Gerasimov, and for Putin to rule in his favour,” Michael Kaufman, a Russia military specialist at the Carnegie Endowment think tank, wrote on Twitter.
“Instead, his insubordination may have secured their continued tenure, despite their universal recognition as incompetent, and widely disliked in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.”
Gen. Viktor Zolotov, the head of the National Guard and Putin’s bodyguard, appears to be another beneficiary after appearing in public to say his men are ready to “stand to the death” to defend Moscow from Wagner.
He has talked about the possibility of acquiring heavy weapons and tanks for his forces in the aftermath of the rebellion.
Gerasimov was absent when Putin on Tuesday thanked the military for avoiding a civil war, in contrast to Shoigu, who has made many public appearances since then.
Surovikin, Gerasimov’s deputy, was last seen on Saturday when he appeared in a video pleading with Prigozhin to stop his revolt. He looked exhausted and it was not clear if he was speaking under duress.
Something seemed odd about the video, as Surovikin holds an automatic weapon in his lap, said Dara Massicot, a Russian military expert at the RAND Corporation think tank.
“I noticed a few days ago, something is a bit off here. He doesn’t wear his insignia or his rank tabs. 30+ years in the military and he hasn’t engaged, even at night? Nope,” she wrote on Twitter.
There were unconfirmed reports by Russian media and blogs on Wednesday night that Surovkin was being held in Moscow’s Lefortovo Detention Center after his arrest.
Alexei Venediktov, a well-connected journalist, said – without citing his sources – that Surovkin had not been in contact with his family since Saturday and that his bodyguards had also gone silent.
Prigozhin, who has spent months denigrating Shoigu and Gerasimov for their alleged incompetence in the Ukraine war, has often praised the well-respected Surovkin in the military for his experience in Chechnya and Syria.
Surovikin, who served a stint as commander-in-chief of the Ukraine war before Gerasimov was appointed to take over, is seen by Western military analysts as a operative, and Russian war correspondents have at times floated him as a possible future defense minister.
The removal of Surovkin, if true, could be more destabilizing to Russia’s war effort than Saturday’s insurrection, said Lawrence Friedman, professor emeritus of war studies at King’s College London, “especially if other Prigozhin/Sorovkin associates begin to purge”.
“Sorovikin is a savage, but also one of Russia’s most capable leaders,” Friedman said on Twitter.
Unconfirmed reports indicate that at least one person has been arrested.
Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov He has not appeared in public or on state television since Saturday’s aborted rebellion when he was the leader of the mercenaries Yevgeny Prigozhin He demanded the extradition of Gerasimov. Nor has it been mentioned in a Defense Department press release since June 9.
According to some Western military analysts, Gerasimov, 67, is the leader of Russia’s war in Ukraine, and the bearer of one of Russia’s “three nuclear briefcases.”
Missing the show is also a year Even Sergey SurovikDubbed “General Armageddon” in the Russian press for his aggressive tactics in the Syrian conflict, he is the deputy commander of Russian forces in Ukraine.
A New York Times report, based on a US intelligence brief, said on Tuesday that he had foreknowledge of the insurrection and that Russian authorities were investigating whether he was complicit.
On Wednesday, the Kremlin downplayed the report, saying there would be a lot of speculation and gossip.
US officials told Reuters on Wednesday that Surovkin was supporting Prigozhin, but that Western intelligence services were not sure if he had aided the insurgency in any way.
The Russian edition of the Moscow Times and a military blogger reported on Surovikin’s arrest, while some other military correspondent who leads a large following in Russia said he and other senior officers were interrogated by the FSB to verify their loyalty.
Reuters was unable to determine if Surovikin was arrested or, along with others, was screened for reliability in a standard exercise.
Rybar, an influencer on messaging app Telegram run by a former press officer for the Russian Defense Ministry, said a purge was underway.
He said the authorities were trying to weed out military personnel believed to have shown a “lack of decisiveness” in suppressing the rebellion amid some reports that parts of the armed forces did not appear to have done much to stop the Wagner fighters in the early phase of the war. insurgency.
“The armed rebellion carried out by the private military company Wagner became a pretext for a large-scale purge in the ranks of the Russian armed forces,” Ribar said.
Such a move, if confirmed, could change the way Russia wages its war in Ukraine – which it calls a “special military operation” – and cause unrest in the ranks of the forces at a time when Moscow is trying to thwart a Ukrainian counterattack.
He could also consolidate or elevate other senior military and security figures deemed loyal.
There was no official comment on what was going on from the Ministry of Defense.
Winners and losers
Some Russian and Western military and political analysts believe that Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, a veteran Putin ally whom Prigozhin wanted to bring down along with Gerasimov over his alleged incompetence, may now be more secure in his job.
“I think he (Prigozhin) actually expected something to be done about Shoigu and Gerasimov, and for Putin to rule in his favour,” Michael Kaufman, a Russia military specialist at the Carnegie Endowment think tank, wrote on Twitter.
“Instead, his insubordination may have secured their continued tenure, despite their universal recognition as incompetent, and widely disliked in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.”
Gen. Viktor Zolotov, the head of the National Guard and Putin’s bodyguard, appears to be another beneficiary after appearing in public to say his men are ready to “stand to the death” to defend Moscow from Wagner.
He has talked about the possibility of acquiring heavy weapons and tanks for his forces in the aftermath of the rebellion.
Gerasimov was absent when Putin on Tuesday thanked the military for avoiding a civil war, in contrast to Shoigu, who has made many public appearances since then.
Surovikin, Gerasimov’s deputy, was last seen on Saturday when he appeared in a video pleading with Prigozhin to stop his revolt. He looked exhausted and it was not clear if he was speaking under duress.
Something seemed odd about the video, as Surovikin holds an automatic weapon in his lap, said Dara Massicot, a Russian military expert at the RAND Corporation think tank.
“I noticed a few days ago, something is a bit off here. He doesn’t wear his insignia or his rank tabs. 30+ years in the military and he hasn’t engaged, even at night? Nope,” she wrote on Twitter.
There were unconfirmed reports by Russian media and blogs on Wednesday night that Surovkin was being held in Moscow’s Lefortovo Detention Center after his arrest.
Alexei Venediktov, a well-connected journalist, said – without citing his sources – that Surovkin had not been in contact with his family since Saturday and that his bodyguards had also gone silent.
Prigozhin, who has spent months denigrating Shoigu and Gerasimov for their alleged incompetence in the Ukraine war, has often praised the well-respected Surovkin in the military for his experience in Chechnya and Syria.
Surovikin, who served a stint as commander-in-chief of the Ukraine war before Gerasimov was appointed to take over, is seen by Western military analysts as a operative, and Russian war correspondents have at times floated him as a possible future defense minister.
The removal of Surovkin, if true, could be more destabilizing to Russia’s war effort than Saturday’s insurrection, said Lawrence Friedman, professor emeritus of war studies at King’s College London, “especially if other Prigozhin/Sorovkin associates begin to purge”.
“Sorovikin is a savage, but also one of Russia’s most capable leaders,” Friedman said on Twitter.
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