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Just three months ago, Chinese leader Xi Jinping was in Moscow baking glasses with Vladimir Putin and expressing confidence in the Russian president’s “strong support” among his people.
That confidence is now in question, after the private military group Wagner launched an insurrection in Russia that shook Putin’s image of weakness. Close observers of China say the rebellion, which did not last long, could push Xi to hedge a closer relationship with Russia that has exposed Beijing to global criticism and threatened some of its interests abroad.
China considers Russia a necessary partner in challenging the US-dominated world order. But Putin’s appetite for risk – demonstrated in his invasion of Ukraine and his reliance on private armies – has forced Beijing to defend its relationship with Russia in the face of Western pressure.
Xi’s long-term bet will pay off only if Putin remains in control to help advance the common interests of both countries. But the mutiny raised questions about Putin’s authority: Wagner’s soldiers encountered little or no resistance from regular Russian forces as they advanced on Moscow. Putin’s decision to grant sanctuary in Belarus to the leader of the uprising, Yevgeny Prigozhin, was a compromise rather than the act of a strongman with unifying power.
“It makes China realize that the internal policies of the Putin government are actually very fragile,” said Xiao Bin, a researcher at the Institute of Russian and East European and Central Asian Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. “The fragility was there before, but it has increased since the beginning of the Russo-Ukrainian war.”
China has publicly reaffirmed its support for the Kremlin in the aftermath of the rebellion, and analysts say the relationship is likely to remain strong, at least from the outside, because of the two leaders’ aligned interests.
But the rebellion may also have forced Beijing to consider how its geopolitical, economic and regional interests would be affected should Putin be suddenly ousted. This may distance China from Russia to some extent.
In Putin’s 23 years in power, Russia’s relations with China have improved significantly since Soviet times and the days of President Boris Yeltsin, when the two sides sent dozens of military divisions to confront each other along the 2,600-mile border. they share.
Any regime change in Russia now would lead to an immediate reckoning with the relationship. Xiao said China would be concerned that a new Russian leader would realign the nation toward a more friendly stance with the United States. This could leave China isolated in its rivalry with the United States and expose it to more pressure.
John Culver, a former US intelligence analyst on China, said that the most dangerous thing is that the strained relationship between Beijing and Moscow may require China to redeploy its forces on the borders with Russia, at the expense of other regions.
“Reducing the number of troops along the border has allowed China to prepare for the greater possibility of conflict over Taiwan, the South China Sea, or with India,” Culver said. “I don’t think enough has happened to make them rethink that, but for the first time they have reasons to wonder if they should.”
Any instability in Russia would serve as a warning to China about the urgency of protecting the country’s supplies from Russian energy imports.
At the same time, Putin’s weakness may be an opportunity for China to make some gains, said Wen Te Song, a professor of political science at the Australian National University.
Beijing may consider accelerating efforts to extract more concessions from Russia. High on China’s list could be access to more Russian technology and more favorable terms for the proposed Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, which would help redirect Russian gas supplies that historically went to Europe toward China instead.
Questions about Putin’s political future highlight how differently he and Xi deal with their shared goal of weakening the global power of the United States and reshaping the world order to better protect their countries’ interests.
Putin has been far more aggressive, waging the largest war in Europe since World War II. Xi in recent years has certainly taken a tougher regional stance, particularly with Taiwan, a self-governing island democracy that claims Beijing, using economic sanctions and military exercises to keep the island on its toes. But he has been careful so far to avoid turning the confrontation into a war that could draw in the United States and its allies.
Xi has also focused on consolidating his power at home. Starting in 2015, the Chinese leader initiated an overhaul of the People’s Liberation Army to consolidate his grip on the military by ousting leaders deemed disloyal or corrupt and upgrading his allies, in many ways to avoid questions of loyalty that Putin faces today.
Some see the Wagner rebellion as the latest sign that China’s relationship with Russia is increasingly similar to its relationship with North Korea, a notoriously erratic country that exploits its volatile behavior to try to pressure China into more support in exchange for backing down. .
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, its trade with China has hit record highs. Beijing has also confirmed that Moscow is not isolated diplomatically.
“The main incentive for Russia is to raise the price of its friendship to benefit more from its dealings with China,” Song said. Russia can do this when it appears impulsive and unpredictable, North Korea-style.
China has paid a heavy price for its support of Russia. The war exacerbated fraught relations between China and the United States, and undermined its efforts to improve relations with Europe. The fighting in Ukraine has drawn more global attention to China’s aggressive stance on Taiwan.
China has carefully navigated these hurdles at home. Chinese state media downplayed what it called the “Wagner Incident” and praised Putin for defusing the crisis. The Global Times, a tabloid affiliated with the Chinese Communist Party, accused Western media of “amplifying” the rebellion to misrepresent China’s relations with Russia. There seemed to be no interest in Prigozhin’s claim that the Russian public had been misled into believing that NATO was responsible for the war.
“The Chinese government still believes in Putin’s control of Russia, and also believes in the long-term stability of Russian society,” said Wang Wen, executive dean of the Zhongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University in Beijing, which tracks developments in Russia. He visited the country after its invasion of Ukraine.
“It would be a strategic miscalculation to think that the Wagner incident could divide China and Russia.”
Despite the prevailing support for Russia, other prominent Chinese experts have argued that the war has damaged China’s standing in the world, including Yan Zhuitong, a senior international relations scholar at China’s prestigious Tsinghua University.
Speaking to reporters last month in Beijing, Yan noted that the United States has not yet sent troops to defend Ukraine, but by comparison, European members of NATO have increased their presence in the Asia-Pacific region.
“From a security perspective, this war did not enhance China’s security but exposed China to more security threats,” Yan said, according to a translation of the Beijing Flag newsletter.
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