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UAW President Shaun Fine chairs the collective bargaining agreement for the 2023 election in Detroit, March 27, 2023.

Rebecca Cook | Reuters

DETROIT — United Auto Workers president Sean Fine promised union members he would do things differently during contract talks with Detroit automakers this year. So far, he has delivered.

Fain has propelled the UAW into the national spotlight with politically astute strategies, resonant messages on social media, and a confidence that the embattled union can ride a national wave of support for organized workers to win a “war” against “corporate greed” and businesses that value Billions of dollars general motorsAnd Ford Motor And excellent.

Fine said tuesday night during Facebook Live event with members.

The consensus among former negotiators and many people who have been involved in previous negotiations is that this year’s bargaining, which officially begins Wednesday, will be “different.”

Some said it would also be “confrontational,” “expensive,” “critical,” “unprecedented,” and “showcasing.”

The negotiations feature fresh bargaining from top bargainers on almost all sides trying to assert themselves, a belief among union members that perks are not an option, and major concerns about the industry’s move to electric cars eliminating jobs and declining wages.

Negotiations are also taking place at the same time as contract talks with Canadian union Unifor, which represents 18,000 employees with the Detroit automakers whose contracts expire in September. While US and Canadian unions have expressed unity with each other, they are expected to add more complexity and competition for investments and jobs.

Instead of the usual handshake between the two sides to signal the start of bargaining, the union opts for a “member’s handshake” Wednesday between the UAW’s international leaders and factory workers. No corporate officials are expected to attend the events, however the federation will begin meeting privately with company officials over the next week.

Former UAW President Gary Jones, left, and Bill Ford, CEO of Ford Motor Company, shake hands at Ford World Headquarters to begin negotiations for a new contract, July 15, 2019.

stronghold

Fine acknowledged on Tuesday that starting negotiations marked a “break with tradition” and said, “I don’t shake hands with any CEOs until they do it right by our members and we fix the broken status quo with the Big Three.”

The public spat between the UAW and the automakers has already begun — unexpectedly early, in the past two weeks — with local Detroit newspaper editorials from both. Ford CEO Jim Farley And UAW Vice President Chuck Browning, Who leads the Ford division of the union.

Play hard ball

“We’re in the process of changing the culture of this union from a reactionary, defensive union to an aggressive and offensive union,” Fine said last month during a Facebook Live broadcast. “We’ve also made major changes in the way we do politics… We will regulate elected officials rather than being organized by them.”

Most notably, Fine decided to withhold the organization’s endorsement for the re-election of President Joe Biden, a longtime union ally, until he addressed the UAW’s concerns about the industry’s transition to electric vehicles. Fain has also spoken consistently of doing “whatever it takes” to get a “fair share” for the members, including using work breaks, or strikes, if necessary.

“Mr. Finn’s powertrain roots and comments since he was sworn in suggest the risk of a difficult negotiation is high, and we expect there will be a strike when the existing master UAW agreement expires in mid-September,” Bank of America Securities analyst John Murphy said in a note. Invested on June 22nd.

BofA estimates that such an outage would cost hundreds of millions of dollars a week in earnings before interest and taxes to the companies, which could amount to billions of dollars in losses for the automakers.

Estimated weekly impact of a union strike, per automaker

  • General Motors: $770 million, or 46 cents, in adjusted earnings per share
  • Ford Motor: $620 million, or 11 cents in adjusted EPS
  • excellent: $470 million, or 12 cents in adjusted EPS

According to Bank of America Securities estimates.

Fiat Chrysler assembly workers build 2019 Ram pickup trucks at the FCA Sterling Heights plant in Sterling Heights, Mich., October 22, 2018.

Rebecca Cook | Reuters

In a statement, Stellantis said the company and the union have “a long history of working together, and our goal is to continue this partnership.”

“Together, we must approach these negotiations with an open mind and a willingness to roll up our sleeves to find solutions that will result in a win-win contract that is competitive in the market, provides a path to the middle class for our employees and meets the needs of our customers.”

General Motors and Ford made similar statements this week. Historically, companies do not comment on the specifics of negotiations until they are finalized.

What is at stake?

Members of the Auto Workers union strike outside General Motors’ Detroit-Hamtramck assembly plant in Detroit, September 25, 2019.

Michael Weiland/CNBC

Under the current pay structure, UAW members start at around $18 an hour and have a four-year “growth” period to reach a top pay of over $30 an hour.

After the UAW-Detroit automaker’s last negotiations in 2019, the Center for Automotive Research projected that average hourly labor costs would increase $11 per worker for Stellantis and $8 per worker for GM and Ford through existing contracts, which expire in September. Those increases push the automaker’s labor costs to $66 an hour for Stellantis, $69 for Ford and $71 for GM, CAR said.

The wage increases in this year’s negotiations could mean additional labor cost increases for Detroit automakers of between 25% and 30% over the next four years, according to BofA’s Murphy, based on recent UAW negotiations with companies outside the auto sector such as Deere & Co.And Larva And CNH.

In addition to wages, benefits and bonuses, the union also has the auto industry’s transition to electric vehicles in its sights. Fain has called for a “just transition” for workers, in which the government uses taxpayer money to subsidize the electric car industry.

A 2018 study by the union found that mass adoption of electric vehicles could cost the UAW 35,000 jobs, but the union recently said that number could be lower.

“The federal government is pouring billions into electric vehicle transition, with no strings attached or obligation to workers,” Fine said earlier this year. “The transition to electric vehicles is at serious risk of becoming a race to the bottom. We want to see national leadership support this before we make any commitments.”

battery workers

General Motors unveiled its all-new modular platform and battery system, Ultium, on March 4, 2020 at the Technology Center campus in Warren, Michigan.

Photo by Steve Ficht for General Motors

Ultium condemned the report and the UAW’s depiction of the plant, calling the UAW’s characterization of the safety concerns “intentionally false and misleading”.

“We strongly oppose the UAW white paper and will provide a detailed response upon further review,” Ultium said in an emailed statement. “Ultium Cells is keen to resume negotiation with the UAW to discuss any specific concerns, as well as a total compensation package for our team members.”

Ultium said hourly workers currently earn between $16 and $22 an hour with full benefits, incentives, and tuition assistance. That compares to traditional hourly UAW members who can earn upwards of $32 an hour in GM plants.

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