Where are the billion-dollar movies? Hollywood lacks mega hits

LOS ANGELES – It’s the billion-dollar question: Why are blockbusters in short supply this year?

universal The Super Mario Bros. movie. Movie is the only movie released in 2023 to so far pass the billion dollar mark at the global box office. It doesn’t look like there could be another, even with some big titles on the calendar.

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“If you were to give 10 people a release schedule at the beginning of the year and say, ‘We’re only going to have one billion-dollar movie out of all these movies, and can you choose which movie that’s going to be? Mike Polidoros, CEO of film marketing firm PaperAirplane Media, said, “I don’t think anyone would have taken a Super Mario Bros. movie to the next level.”

The lack of billionaires marks a sea change in the industry. In the years leading up to the Covid-19 pandemic, and even last year, there were many megabytes that exceeded $1 billion of the global total.

The lack of these kinds of blockbusters in 2023 is particularly evident in Disney, which owns the Marvel, Star Wars, Pixar, and Legacy of Fairy Tale franchises. While the studio is well on its way to being the ruler of the box office this year, it’s had a series of missteps in recent months that have raised concerns that audience preferences are changing too quickly for Hollywood to adapt.

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania failed to draw audiences beyond Marvel’s die-hard fans in February, grossing just $214.5 million domestically and less than $500 million worldwide. “Elemental,” which was released just last month, currently holds the second-lowest domestic showing of any Pixar film in the studio’s history, narrowly eclipsing 2020’s “Onward,” which experienced a shortfall at the box office due to the pandemic.

At Disney’s Lucasfilm, “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny,” which hits theaters June 30, is expected to struggle to make back its roughly $300 million production budget. To date, it has grossed $122.1 million at the domestic box office and $221.4 million worldwide.

“On the whole, I see Disney in a situation that was mostly expected to be emerging from the pandemic and going through yet another leadership change,” said Sean Robbins, a senior analyst at BoxOffice.com. “These two hugely influential players have reshaped the studio’s stature in many ways, especially at the box office when considering the past decade that has seen their best franchises and their brand on all cylinders. This kind of momentum just wouldn’t have been sustainable without occasional ebbs and flows.”

Disney CEO Bob Iger told CNBC’s David Faber Thursday that the company will cut Marvel and Star Wars content as it seeks to cut costs and revamp its brands.

A bright spot for Disney has come in the form of James Gunn’s final arc at Marvel Studios. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 is the third-highest-grossing domestic release so far this year, with $357.5 million. It follows behind Sony’s “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”. Gunn now helps lead Warner Bros.’s DC Studios. Discovery.

The third Guardians movie has managed to secure $834.2 million worldwide since its May release, but it likely won’t reach the coveted $1 billion threshold.

Notably, Disney’s “Avatar: The Way of Water” generated more than $1 billion in global ticket sales in 2023, but since it was released in 2022, it’s not considered a billion-dollar movie of the year.

“The billion-dollar club seems to be getting more exclusive in 2023,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at comScore. “Despite many high-profile titles featuring some of the biggest movie brands and franchises, this year’s crop so far lacks the global footprint or sheer market dominance to cross the billion-dollar threshold in what has been a competitive global film market.”

The Chinese market, in particular, was a major driving force in its previous multibillion-dollar box office hit, but the region has been more selective about which Hollywood films are allowed to be shown in the country. China has also developed its own lucrative film market.

For example, most Marvel films released pre-pandemic saw 15% to 22% of all ticket sales from China. In the aftermath of the pandemic, only a few of these comic book movies have been released to screens in the country and those that have have seen significantly less revenue.

The first two Ant-Man movies, which were released in 2015 and 2018, brought in about 20% of ticket sales from China. Meanwhile, Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania saw just 8% of tickets sold in China.

“Globally, China’s evolution into a market that can no longer be relied upon for massive offerings by some of the films and franchises that used to do so leaves a gap that may be too big to fill in the short term,” Robbins said.