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Like an attention-seeking child, the BJP timed the revival of its 38-party coalition on the eve of the second meeting of non-BJP parties. The intent may be to shift the focus of the media debate, but it will not remove the importance of efforts to unite the opposition. The renewed consolidation of the NDA indicates further fragmentation in the states’ parties. It also indicates more instability at the state level when elections for the House of Representatives are held; It suggests the emergence of more idiosyncratic regional and caste identities. As an optical illusion, it carries the image that there are not many parties involved in the project of displacing the BJP.
While one might electorally reject a 38-party caucus, since many of them might be able to win at most one seat, politically speaking, it carries an important message that the anti-BJP front may need to address: that the aggressive Hindutva does not hold its own. Many minor players are far from joining the BJP and so, in the long run, Hindutva politics will have a reach that electoral setbacks alone will not be able to undo. It will be interesting to see how the anti-BJP parties deal with this challenge.
Obviously, elections come first. It can be said that the parties that met in Patna last month have the same share of the vote that the BJP had in 2019. This makes the prospects of the battle very promising. However, without significant parties such as the BSP, BRS (formerly TRS), YSRCP, and BJD, any “unified” opposition would be limited in scope and strength. In order to ignore these parties, Congress will have to perform exceptionally well in UP, Telangana, Andhra and Odisha, which is difficult. Supporters of India, as the New Front was called, might argue that these parties themselves chose to distance themselves from unity efforts. It is true that this gap will make the task of the new front somewhat daunting.
While the BJP wants to rely on a “national” or pan-India face and platform, the opposition must know that even today, state-level rivalries make and break up national politics. Therefore, it will be necessary to engage the parties that have moved away from the current unity efforts. The above four states (even if one assumes BSP is confined to UP), comprise 143 seats in the Lok Sabha, and 53 seats were won by these four parties. This should underscore the importance of negotiating with these parties on an urgent basis.
Even otherwise, A.J United opposition You will have to do at least three tasks in the coming months. Like in Patna, also in Bengaluru, opposition parties put on a good show but failed to make more than a general statement. So what are these three tasks waiting to be done for opposition unity to become a credible force?
In the first place, its policies must be set so that the majority of the partners have stakes in the unit’s efforts. With the exception of the Congress and the Communists, this alliance is mostly dominated by state parties and their struggle against the BJP is at the same time a battle against a dominant centre. Even Congress has recognized over the past ten years that federalism is not just a lofty principle of the Constitution, but an important factor in the survival of the opposition, particularly the protection of opposition parties running state governments. Therefore, the new front needs to enthusiastically develop a program of protection and renewal of federalism.
The opposition’s focus on democracy is indeed justified, but if it is not to remain an abstract beating stick, it is imperative that the spirit of democracy be expressed through the ideas and practices associated with federalism. This would assure the states parties of the importance of the alliance, and at the grassroots level, the new front would be able to reconnect regional and national identities in a powerful way.
Second, the united opposition needs to come up with a political program or blueprint that will appeal to the voter. There is often a temptation of blanket centralization when it comes to social and economic policies. This may not help the new front because the BJP has already occupied that space. The opposition will have to clearly define which social segments it specifically seeks to align with. The media and the idea of the middle classes may discourage a sharply divisive political stance. But such a position is likely to win over the Dalits, the Adivasi, the small farmers, the urban poor and the vast numbers of unorganized workers in the service sector.
This, of course, is not a plea for a traditional left-wing platform or for the overused “social justice” platform of the 1990s. The opposition will need to devise more attractive policies to convince voters that this front offers them something real and in the near term, rather than platitudes about an uncertain future. The so-called middle classes are also deeply stratified and a large part of them, while being defined as “middle” classes in terms of ambition and perception, are in fact waiting for the support of politics to realize their aspirations. Therefore, its mission is specific to the opposition: in order to respond to the BJP’s build-up of the pan-Hindu vote, it must cultivate a narrowly defined base relevant to socio-economic realities.
Third, the opposition will need to explain why it is so keen to unseat the BJP. An alliance to jointly defeat the ruling party is quite understandable in a dominant party system, but it is necessary to convince themselves that their survival can only be ensured by coming together. However, regardless of their survival, the opposition will need to make clear what they oppose.
Merely catching Modi would not be a satisfactory answer. BJP politics operates on three narratives – an authoritarian personality cult, a vika narrative and a less explicit narrative of Hindutva and exclusion. The opposition will need a realistic and articulate critic of the former two without focusing on Modi’s personality and a quiet subtext for inclusion. Only then, the language of the ‘idea of India’ will resonate with the voter.
The caution that opposition parties have treaded from Patna to Bengaluru suggests that the parties themselves are aware of these tasks – besides sharing seats and massaging the ego, they have to build a vision. Secret meetings are fine, but much thought and political action will be required between Bengaluru and Mumbai. For that, the new front must remember that the business of forming an ‘India’ is not a matter of arithmetic but of politics.
The writer, who is based in Pune, has taught political science and is the editor-in-chief of Studies in Indian Politics.
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