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The BJP may have ceded its most coveted posts such as CM and Deputy Prime Minister to its coalition partners the Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde and the NCP led by Ajit Pawar, but it is unlikely to threaten its leadership role in the Lok Sabha and assembly elections next year.
Senior BJP sources have hinted that the party will strike a hard bargain to maintain its electoral edge in the 2024 elections by competing for the maximum number of seats.
A senior BJP official said, “In the Lok Sabha polls, the BJP will not settle for 25 out of 48 seats. It will contest 152 out of 288 seats in the assembly.” Which means that the remaining 136 seats will be divided between Shiv Sena and NCP in proportion to their power.
Being the largest political party, the BJP’s demand for more seats has its origins in the 2019 elections. Five years ago, the BJP won 23 out of 48 seats in the Lok Sabha polls. Shiv Sena, his then undivided alliance partner, won 18 seats. The BJP’s political directors said, “Anything less than 25 seats in the Lok Sabha is unacceptable to the BJP. It may have more than 28 seats.”
Currently, the Shiv Sena led by Shinde has the support of 13 MPs. It included one Lok Sabha seat from Daman & Diu.
BJP President Chandrashekhar Pawankul said, “The BJP along with the Shiv Sena and the NCP will contest the Lok Sabha elections together. Everything will be done smoothly by mutual consent.”
Last week, while addressing a party meeting, Dy CM Devendra Fadnavis said, “Sometimes, it is necessary to swallow the bitter pill. But rest assured, the BJP will never compromise its position. The alliances made (Shiv Sena and NCP) are part of the political strategies in the larger interests of the BJP and India.”
Urging party workers to dedicate the next year to the organization without seeking any power or positions, Fadnavis said, “A Narendra Modi government led by the BJP at the center with a greater mandate is a must in the 2024 elections. It is imperative to achieve the goals towards taking India to its glorious heights.”
Moreover, Fadnavis also subtly indicated in the meeting that BJP’s concerns would be addressed. The party will ensure that it does not cede its place in the three-party coalition. He emphasized that short-term sacrifice is necessary to achieve larger goals.
In the assembly, the party tally in the 2019 elections was: BJP 105, Shiv Sena (undivided) 56, Congress 44 and NCP 53.
After the split in the Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray, 40 MLAs shifted to the Shiv Sena led by Shinde, while Ajit Pawar had the support of more than 35 out of the 53 MLAs.
The Bharatiya Janata Party directed its workers to unite every seat in the House of Representatives and the Lok Sabha. Its strategy is to maximize the strike rate. Which means that even if he contests 152 seats in the Assembly, he should be able to win 135 to 140 seats. The midway mark for forming the government is 145 seats out of 288 seats.
Pawankul said, “We have focused on rebuilding all 288 assembly seats and 48 seats in the Lok Sabha. This will help us to enhance our electoral performance and also help our coalition partners in the seats they are contesting.”
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