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The conservative Popular Party won the election, but failed to realize its hopes of a bigger victory and force out Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez. Instead, the party led by candidate Alberto Núñez Figo has underperformed expectations in most opinion polls.
Although Sánchez’s socialists finished second, they and their allied parties celebrated the result like a victory since their combined forces took slightly more seats than the People’s Party and the far right. The bloc likely to support Sanchez totaled 172 seats. Right block behind Feijóo, 170.
“It was a Pyrrhic victory for the Popular Party unable to form a government,” said political analyst Veronica Fumanal, adding that the Conservatives must now reach out to the far right, and even then it will not be enough. “I see a deadlock scenario in Parliament.”
Closer than expected Weeks of political maneuvering and uncertainty about the country’s future leadership are likely to result. The next prime minister will not be voted on until after lawmakers are installed in the new House of Representatives.
But Sanchez’s chances of securing the support of the 176 deputies – the absolute majority in the Madrid-based parliament – needed to form a government are not great either. The divided results made the hardline Catalan separatist party Juntes (together) the potential kingmaker for Sanchez. If the Junts demanded a referendum on the independence of northeastern Catalonia, it would likely prove too costly for Sánchez.
“We will not make Pedro Sanchez prime minister for nothing,” said Miriam Nogueras of Juntes after the results left her party holding the keys to power.
With 98% of the votes counted, the People’s Party is on its way to securing 136 seats. Even with the 33 seats the far-right Vox is poised to take and the only seat reserved for a minor party aligning with the People’s Party, it will still be far from its goal of a major victory.
The Socialists are set to win 122 seats, two more than they had. But Sanchez is likely to call 31 seats for his junior coalition partner Sumar (Uniting Forces) and at least as many smaller forces as the right-wing parties combined.
“Spain and all the citizens who voted made themselves clear. The backward bloc that wanted to undo everything we’ve done has failed,” Sanchez told a jubilant crowd gathered at the Socialists’ headquarters in Madrid.
After his party suffered defeat in regional and local elections in May, Sánchez could wait until December to face a national vote. Instead, he stunned his rivals by raising the vote, hoping to gain greater support from his supporters.
Even if that goes to new ballots, this election night Sanchez could add another comeback in a career that’s been built around beating the odds. The 51-year-old Sanchez had to wage a rebellion among ordinary socialists to return to the presidency of his party before winning Spain’s only vote of no confidence to oust his predecessor, the People’s Party, in 2018.
But Feijóo could potentially swap spots with his rival if he could.
Feijóo focused the People’s Party’s campaign not on what he would do as prime minister, but rather an attack on what he called the latter’s trustworthiness of Sánchez. The strategy failed. The Socialists and other left-wing parties appear to have galvanized their constituents by stoking fear of the anti-feminist, ultra-nationalist Vox in power as a junior member of a potential coalition with the People’s Party.
PP-Vox’s government could have meant another EU member moved aggressively to the right, a trend seen recently in Sweden, Finland and Italy. Countries such as Germany and France are concerned about what such a shift might portend for the EU’s migration and climate policies.
The election took place in the height of summer, when millions of voters were likely on vacation away from their usual polling places. However, requests for mail-in voting skyrocketed.
With a month of heatwaves to come, temperatures were expected to average over 35 degrees Celsius (95 degrees Fahrenheit), or 5 to 10 degrees Celsius above normal in many parts of the country. The authorities distributed the fans to many stations.
“We have hotness, but the right to freely exercise our vote is stronger than free,” said Rosa Maria Valladolid-Prieto, 79, in Barcelona.
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